First preview back since my 2 week hiatus overseas, fingers crossed we can pick some decent winners this weekend!
NRL
Another Origin game down and another fight…surely this was a $1.01 chance to happen! While it wasn’t as blatantly aggressive as Gallen’s hit 3 weeks back, it was still unnecessary . What happened from my point of view was Gallen was pushed out of the tackle from Brent Tate, no need for that, and it eventually led to the resulting brawl. That included Merrin for NSW coming in and throwing punches, albeit not as cleanly as Gallen, then Hodges for QLD throwing his arm around as if he was in the Olympic discus final! Greg Bird eventually ran in and does what he always does, get involved, cops a few knocks and gives a few knocks. All in all, a typical Origin scrap but what was unusual was all 4 instigators went to the bin, leaving the game at an incredible 11 on 11!
I can’t make an argument for Bird getting involved, but then I can’t see why he needed to go to the bin, Tate started it all, and the other 2 were swinging punches. If it wasn’t for Gallen in Game 1, nothing would have happened, and while it may have been an over-reaction to send off 4 players, my view, best to go over the top to eliminate on field fights than not far enough. The 26-6 scoreline proved how dominant QLD were, particularly the first half. It was simply, QLD at their best, NSW at their worst, opposite of Game 1 were the margin was just 8, this time it was 20. To me, that says QLD at their best better than NSW at their best, but there’s one last decider to work that one out!
There was also one other passage of play not replayed often enough to get enough of a look, but appeared Slater elbowed Pearce, more on that story HERE thanks to sportal.com.au. Meanwhile my tip of Darius Boyd FTS failed again, even though he picked up a great double, and amazingly Cam Smith won the MOM while he made more tackles than anyone else, Thurston set up 2 tries and was fantastic. Could also make a case for Thaiday (eventual FTS at BIG odds) and Scott, while if he had played the full 80 Parker would have been in with a shot too.
Which Warriors will turn up this week? More colorful than Richie’s Bone, White, Off-White, Ivory, Beige or the Cream!
Onto this week’s tips in GREEN, bets in RED, best of luck, not going too risky with betting as many Origin players unsure if they will or won’t play.
Rabbitohs v Raiders: Souths should do this with ease, big line of -12 for FT but like the look of HT line at -6.5 for Souths, currently $2.04, worried Canberra would even get into double figures.
Tigers v Storm: Tigers have won 3 of their past 4…tempted to go them here against a Storm who were gritty but not good enough without their stars Monday against the Titans. Depending who plays, Tigers with Farrah or Storm with Slater Cronk Smith and Hoffman backing up, not going to bet on this one but looking at an upset, Tigers at home. *UPDATE* just read late that Smith out for Storm.
Panthers v Dragons: Last time they played, Penrith kept St George scoreless. For the first time at Kogarah. EVER! Since then the Panthers haven’t won, and the Dragons just the once, so form is hard to gauge around this time in the season. 10th at home v 14th and neither side would’ve thought they’d be down that low on the table, and it’s likely to be a lowscoring game too. Panthers just, bet here is by 1-10points at $3.40
Knights v Titans: I like the way my Titans are going but haven’t got the confidence in them others have, such as the NRL website who says a win here could ‘see them gradually place themselves amongst the title contenders’. LIES! I’d say mid-table at best, much the same as Newcastle, making this quite a good contest. Newcastle are on 4 losses in a row, ave score of 13 and not many teams win with just 13 on the board! Should Boyd return this round he’ll be in good sorts fresh off a double last night, but could hate myself later for tipping this, a tight win for the Titans here, no bets.
Warriors v Broncos: Only met 4 weeks ago and the Kiwis put on a whopping 56 points on the Broncos, 30 after HT. And that was at Suncorp, first time ever conceding 50+ in QLD! So what does that say for this week? Well chances are it’d be the same lineup, which is minus origin stars for the Broncos, and no change for the Warriors at home. But…..it’s the Warriors, the team of many moods, with some luck they’ll be in Moley’s Lalalala mode and scoring plenty of tries, tipping NZ, no bet.
Cowboys v Sharks: This could be an interesting game, Cowboys at home about 10points better than Cowboys away. Maybe a slight exaggeration, but the point is, traveling to Townsville harder than most trips. Carney for the Sharks I think will be the factor here, with the 2 Rooster’s players Pearce and Maloney having average games in Origin, Carney could well step up this next fortnight and raise his hand for Game 3 selection. Also coming off 5wins in their last 6, Cronulla making a decent case for themselves heading into the business half of the season. any have said the Cowboys are Myths, sitting 13th with just the 5 wins to their name when expected to play finals proves that theory. Their last home win was back in April though, so leaning to an upset of Sorts with the Sharks winning a tight one.
Roosters v Sea Eagles: Earlier in the season when these sides met it was a gritty hard game and the Roosters in the end proved too good defensively winning 16-4. Since then, the Roosters have come back to earth a bit, Melbourne put them back in their place, Parra put on 24points, a home loss to the Warriors!! and just getting over the line against the Dogs. Hardly convincing form but they’re still up near the top of the table. How Pearce and Maloney can turn around their Origin game will be critical. Manly in that time have only had one win since, also hardly the best form, but with Brett Stewart due back and the solid Origin debut of DCE I’m expecting an upset here with Manly taking the win, 1-10 margin at $3.75 is the bet.
Below is my NRL multi for this weekend, only going small here as it’s quite a risky one adding up all my 3 bets into one 26/1 shot. Best of luck, all odds thanks to Sportsbet:
Super Rugby
First round back after the hiatus for the Internationals, where the All Blacks were good enough to defeat France 3-0, and the Springboks were way too classy for Samoa, Italy and the Scots. The Wallabies meanwhile lost their first Lions matchup by just 2 points, in a game where they had many possible points available if not for poor goalkicking. Saying that, Australia played very well to get so close, with so many injuries during the game, and the Lions meanwhile should have been more willing to go for the try not the penalty points. Small point to make here, big congrats to the Japanese Rugby side, for a long time their comp has been a bit of a retirement comp for guys like George Smith (before he came back to the Brumbies this season) to finish their careers. Now, albeit against an understrength Welsh side, they had their first big win over one of the big boys in Rugby. Always like to hear these David and Goliath type tales in world sport, best of luck to them!
This weekend’s matchup, I feel the Lions will seal the series win under the roof of Etihad stadium, and have 2 small bets both singles on George North to score a try anytime at $3, and Leigh Halfpenny, one of the best kicks in the world, to go 100% for the night at $2.35.
Onto the SuperRugby, will be expecting most teams to be a touch rusty in the first 5/10mins played after not much game time for most players not involved in national duty. For what it’s worth, here is the current Super Rugby table, with the Brumbies top of the table. The Chiefs and Bulls meanwhile on the same amount of wins could leapfrog ACT before their next match such is how this section of the fixtures is. Of the sides out of the top 6, only the Blues realistically could get past the Crusaders as the top 2 from the other conferences are far ahead of their rivals, meaning the possibility of the Cheetahs making playoffs for the first time in the history of that franchise.
So onto this week’s games only involving the NZ and RSA sides, one Friday arvo match, one Saturday arvo match then a triple header from the republic in the wee hours of Saturday morning. Hard to be super confident with my tips, but I have a multi in place for who I like most! Tips in GREEN Bets in RED, best of luck.
Chiefs v Hurricanes: Chiefs to cover the -7.5 line at $1.92
Highlanders v Crusaders: Crusaders to win, not overly confident in them but then have zero faith in the Highlanders!
Sharks v Blues: If the Blues want to sneak ahead of Christchurch into the top 6, this is a big game for them over in Durban. Having their RSA tour on the end of the season is a killer, need to win at least one game and feel this is their chance. Big outsiders, should be a tight game, liking the Blues to get close. Currently +6.5 is the line at $1.92, but I’m going conservative and adding an extra 4points, making it +10.5 (pick your own line on Sportsbet) at $1.57.
Bulls v Kings: Bulls by as many as they like, the Kings now finish their season with 3 games in RSA but feel the season has just gone too long for them. Hard not to be impressed by their efforts but the Bulls plus bonus points in this one.
Stormers v Cheetahs: Big game, Cheetahs should have their finals spot sealed up, but if results go against them including this one, that chance would slip away. like them to win here against Cape Town, Stormers can’t make playoffs so won’t have as much to play for, the $2.50 H2H is nice, but going Cheetahs to win 1-12 at $3.60.
So below is my Super Rugby multi for this week thanks to Sportsbet, combining the Cheifs and Blues at the line, plus the Cheetahs 1-12. Best of luck, most confident in the Chiefs, who at a line of -7.5 look the goods to me.
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