NRL & Super Rugby tips

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Clik here to view.2 in-form stars of the game face off in this week’s Match of the Round

NRL
Well wasn’t that an upset of epic proportions Monday night! Even the most one eyed Dragons fan wouldn’t have picked that sort of last 20min effort from their side to overcome the ladder leading Souths. The majority of people would have tipped Rabbits by as many as they want, much like myself, but not the case. Besides Inglis, South Sydney were just about full strength so no real excuses for the loss, strange results have come on Monday Night Footy but this was the strangest. From here, only got 3/6 for the round, other 2 losses included Wests who were leading at HT but overrun by an adventurous and improving Warriors side, and the home ground advantage didn’t help out the Panthers one iota as Newcastle trampled over them.

Now that the Origin period is over, and hopefully the QLD players have worked off their hangovers, we should start getting back to full strength teams, although the clouds are still hanging over Cronulla for their involvement with the ongoing drugs in sport scandal. It was released Sunday morning that ASADA had allegedly done a deal with the AFL, although as one would expect, both the ASADA and AFL deny it. If that’s the case, it ruins the integrity of the investigation, and could well be a let off for the Sharks. The NRL would be smart to offer as much legal aid as it can to Cronulla now, and in the future should the Essendon side in the AFL get off lightly, when it comes to performance enhancers there should be the same rules applied across all sports not just for some. Although this just in is worth reading here.

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Clik here to view.What I’ll be thinking if the ASADA investigations have been compromised

Nonetheless, on we roll to the next week of matchups, in which we finally get back to a full 8-game round, starting with what in other seasons has been billed as a QLD blockbuster. 2013 though, Cowboys v Broncos doesn’t have the same lustre or appeal, as both sides look set to miss out on finals unless either side can perform a miracle finish to the season. This round though does have seven of the eight games that one could make a solid case for either side, a tough round for tipping. 2 matches of the round for mine are in NZ as the Warriors host the Storm and then later on Super Sunday the Knights host the Roosters, both of these games crucial for the home sides to assert themselves as finals chances. Talking of finals chances, below is the ladder, showing the top 11 sides that are fighting over the spots in the top 8 for finals. Feel the top 4 will stay as it is, the rest is all up in the air!

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Below are my early tips, with a multi below thanks to Sportsbet. Tips in Green, Bets in Red:

Cowboys v Broncos: At home, tough to go past the Cows, even though their last home match they only properly played for 50mins against Manly. Broncos look shot as a team, the odd big game performance is more a tease than anything else. Tipping Cowboys at home, though with 2 under-performing sides, not going to have a bet this game.

Bulldogs v Eels: Parra with another scoreless game on the weekend and with Sportsbet already paying out on Punters who had money on them finishing bottom, same as last season. What more can you say about them? Did well to only concede 14 to Canberra at home, reckon they’d go ok to only concede that against the Doggies Friday night. Bulldogs off a bye could be rusty early on, but still expect them to win, perhaps the only thing close to a sure thing this weekend. Bet for this game is the total points score, go the under 42.5 at $1.90.

Dragons v Raiders: On the back of last night’s game alone, could make a case for the Dragons. Look a bit deeper, see the Raiders poor away record, and it’s a genuine chance here for St George. Low confidence game to tip on, and not putting money on it, but like the dragons in a slight upset in an otherwise tough fixture.

Titans v Rabbitohs: Very disappointing round just gone for both teams, for Souths to not hold onto a lead, and for the Titans to not get even close in the first half of their big loss was poor. The Rabbits are still on top though for a very good reason, hard to go past them, and this season is starting to look bad for Gold Coast. Injuries galore, plus some sub-standard defending and discipline at times has cost them on too many occasions. If they can play sensible, possible they can get within a converted try but tipping Souths. Bet I will be having here on Sportsbet is Reynolds to score more points than Sezer for the Titans at $1.40, short odds but a good one for the multi. (On twitter, discussed and then had a punt on Sam Burgess as an anytime tryscorer at a handy $5 Monday night, tempted to go the same again at $3.25!)

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Clik here to view.Warriors v Storm: First game of a proper Super Sunday of games! Liking the way NZ have dragged themselves back into the race this year, afterwell and truly bottoming out against the Panthers. Seems an age ago that game, but since then the Warriors have been the form team of the comp. Combine that with the Storm in a rough patch through Origin, plus being a bit of a bogey side for the kiwis, and it looks like the home team can win this. Although, Melbourne with Smith is a much tougher prospect than without the Aussie skipper. Expect a very tough tight game, leaning just ton the Warriors, only bet I’ll have is the tri-bet, either side to win by 6 or less points at $2.58.

Sharks v Panthers: Couple of days ago I’d say the Panthers were a good shot in this one, but they were beaten comprehensively by Newcastle, so hard to know how they’ll go away from home here. Cronulla meanwhile gave very little in their 40-0 loss to the Roosters. A lot on the line in this game, a win for Penrith could leap them into 6th spot, a loss could see them drop down as far as 11, results pending. As for the Sharks, win keeps them in the 8 and within reach, and you have to think, with the uncertainty of what will happen in the ongoing investigations, anywhere in the top 8 will be good enough for now. I’m liking Penrith in this game, going them at +6.5 pick your own line at $1.68 as the bet.

Knights v Roosters: Tough game this as Newcastle have been good at home, and should be full of confidence after a rare away win for their side. But then these Roosters, who one week show brilliant defense, next week pile on 40 points, are becoming a decent well rounded side. Hesitant to go early and predict a future for Sydney just now, their losses to date have been against sides who have put on much more pressure. Should Newcastle impose themselves on the game and break the defence of the Roosters, they give themselves every chance, but liking the Roosters as my tip, no bet in this one.

Tigers v Manly: Another Monday Night fixture for Manly, who seem to have a love/hate affair with this timeslot. 6 games, 3 wins 2 losses and a tie, it’s hard to know which Monday Manly side turns up. But then, after strong wins against 2 QLD opponents in their last 2 rounds it’d be hard to go against them. But as we’ve seen on MNF, can’t write off any team regardless where they are on the table, so Wests are a slight chance already. Had they kept up the intensity around the ground for the entire 80mins the Tigers would’ve won Friday night, alas the Warriors proved too strong and in turn ruined any slim chance they had of finals. What I mentioned last week with Benji Marshall finishing the season strong proved to be a wrong assessment, had a shocker! Tipping manly, but with Monday night games, new rule, no bets on the result!

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Super Rugby

After the first weekend of finals down, in which I tipped 2/2 and got the small multi in, it’s onto the semi-finals this week. Sad to see my mob the Reds drop out but with a Lion’s tour taking out whatever momentum and form they had running into the finals, it was always going to be the way, just didn’t expect such a mauling at the hands of the Crusaders. Some of the tries scored are definitely worth a second look!

Meanwhile the Brumbies just held off the Cheetahs, as predicted it wasn’t going to be an easy win, and now the Canberra side head off to the republic to face a very strong Bulls side. Have said before I like the look of the Bulls this season to take the title (currently $3.50), they’ve been more consistent than most and tipping them to win here against the Brumbies. But the last loss the Bulls had this year was against the Brumbies in Canberra, thanks to a very controversial late penalty given. A repeat on the cards? Doubt it, only bet I’ll have this weekend on the Super Rugby is just a straight H2H bet here for the Bulls, at around the $1.30 mark, very short, it’s one to throw into your multis. (Added to the 11/1 multi for the NRL gives you roughly 15/1)

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Clik here to view.Tipping the Bulls to run through the Brumbies at Loftus

Reason why just the one bet? This second final that’s why, sounds lame when there’s just the 2 matches but this is match of the round! The Chiefs and Crusaders faced off not long back and it was a convincing win to the Christchurch side, who have a knack of playing their best at the pointy end of the season. Can they repeat the same at Hamilton? Again, I’m hoping not as the Chiefs deserve to play in the final going on the whole season, but the form the current Crusaders are in, well even as a franchise side they look stronger than most national teams! Hard to pick this, leaning to the Crusaders but no bets in this one as of yet.

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Clik here to view.Follow on twitter @mugpuntaus

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