Joint Brownlow Medalists, both key to the big stories this week
Another hectic week in the AFL, highlighted by the ongoing dramas at Essendon as 4 of their senior staff were charged of ‘conduct unbecoming’. As far as the AFL is concerned this is the only way they can show their power whilst the ASADA investigations continue, and whilst I could spend the next 3000 words explaining what this means for the Bombers the young group at Bound For Glory have already done so Here and Here.
Honestly, it’s getting very tiresome this case, the longer it drags out the more I’m thinking the Bombers are going to get off lightly here. If what is reported is true, which I am almost certain it is, Essendon are going to be in a lot of pain. The overwhelming feeling is though, that this will go to the courts and it will end up being the legal equivalent of who has the bigger paycheque. And the fans will lose out, fully expect the findings to be released on say…Melbourne Cup day, at around midday when noone is the least bit interested. It’s exactly how the AFL broke the tanking saga with Melbourne.
In comparison to other recent scandals, Adelaide essentially lost their trading ability with Kurt Tippett, plus draft picks plus fines plus suspensions for breaking the salary cap. And Melbourne still got fined nearly half a mil, despite the final verdict saying they didn’t tank. And what is more ludicrous from that penalty was that half million was never at Melbourne as the club relied on AFL payouts! I wouldn’t say either penalty was soft nor overly harsh, with the Crows they certainly could have gone harder and banished Adelaide from the 2013 draft altogether which would have still been fair.
A huge amount of this farce shambles could have been stopped much earlier on had one man cooperated with ASADA, and I speak of Stephen Dank. The man supposedly with all the knowledge and full of praise for the Essendon system which he helped implement, and left those he respects out to dry. Glenn Mitchell, the former ABC broadcaster now writing for The Roar has been one of the best giving insights into this whole saga and he was at his best calling out Dank for the sake of himself, the club, the league and sport in general (don’t forget he’s at the center of the Cronulla scandal in the NRL too!), most definitely worth a read.
Full credit to the brilliant efforts of @kernpls
Hard to believe this wasn’t the sale big news of the week, as Brisbane Lions essentially sacked coach Michael Voss. His contract was up at season’s end and simply the board told him his services weren’t required, so with immediate effect Voss has left the club, after 22years as a player and senior coach. While noone can deny his ability as a player, one of the best in his era, his coaching had some faults. Mainly, this all came down to the fact he barely had a coaching apprenticeship that others in senior positions have had. From the start he wasn’t going to be tactically as clever as others, but his first season he managed to get Brisbane into the finals. Since then it’s been average season after average season, plodding along in mediocrity, 2013 is looking the same.
The shock for most is the timing, as 6 weeks ago the Lions pulled off a miracle against Geelong to come from a huge margin down and win. And since then the performances have improved. One must question, why not move Voss along half way thru the season when they were truly awful and gave no effort compared to now. Or why not complete the season? Rumors immediately circled Paul Roos as the possible replacement, but in my opinion this won’t happen. Brisbane has taken a gamble, sacking a club favorite in the pursuit of a so called super-coach. Massive egg-on-face should Roos not come and Brisbane are left searching for a plan B. Personally, Mark Williams should be priority number 1 for both Brisbane and Melbourne as they seek the best coach available, no point trying to get Roos if he’s not interested!
In other news this round, 2 West Coast stars Adam Selwood and Mark Nicoski have announced their retirements, the Lions have made Springfield their new training base from 2016 (no monorails unfortunately), Collingwood have reached 80,000 members the most for any Australian sporting club, and the Crows are set to have a reserves side in the SANFL which would be a positive for the club but personally would only feel it would be fair if the Power too could have their own reserves side.
Match of the Round: Hathorn v Collingwood
Onto this week’s matches, and as the season draws to a close some teams are still in contention for finals even though they can’t finigh inside the top 8, as we wait and see what happens with Essendon. Ironically the one year that finishing 9th is rewarded and Richmond aren’t going to finish there! As you can see on the ladder below, even the 12th placed Crows are a sneaky chance if they win their remaining games and results go accordingly. Unlikely of course, but if a team was to finish 9th it could be rewarding. Unsure if I like the idea of mediocre sides getting rewarded but I’d rather see that than a potentially cheating side playing finals! The top 7 have all qualified now, so it will just be positional changes now, as for Port one more win guarantees finals for the first time since their 2007 Grand Final loss.
So this week’s games start off with a belter but then as expected there are some dud games, so I’ll focus on the big matches like tonight’s Hawthorn v Collingwood match at the G. Couple of weeks back I think I was like many, assuming the Pies would make the finals as they are a better than average side but probably not do too much damage in September. Well, haven’t they turned things around in a hurry smashing the Bombers and a big upset win against Sydney. It seems they have their team ‘Mojo’ back now, the hard running almost erratic springing forward that works well for them was too good for the Swans. Suddenly Collingwood could sneak into the top 4, and should their form stay true, they could also have a very strong finish in September. The likes of Swan, Pendlebury and Beams are central to their success so it will be vital for the Hawks to shut these men down, or limit their influence, aswell as Cloke who was down last week but still a threat. This is the biggest test for the Pies, can they back up after a big win against the top of the table side, who have strengths all over the park? Hawthorn aren’t in superb form, a loss to the Tiges a fortnight back and a cruisy win against the Saints leading upto this match, but theyre still on top of the ladder for good reason. 3 big ins this week including Franklin, Hodge and Birchall, not bad for the Hawks who have also won the last 4 between the sides. Franklin has a superb record against the Pies but it’s sidekick Roughhead who is the one I feel more dangerous around the ground, how Collingwood can tackle these 2 will go a long way towards deciding this match. Expect 80,000 there tonight in what is pretty much a finals preview, am tipping the Hawks here to flex their muscle, and win this but by no more than 4goals, tight affair.
Saturday sees a last roll of the dice game for Carlton as they face Richmond at the MCG, a loss here just about makes Carlton certainties to miss finals action. Is it harsh to judge a coach after one season? I think yes, if they are a first year coach with a developing side, but not if you have a resume like Mick Malthouse. Many people have said this week ‘I told you so’ when describing Mick’s potential success at the Blues, seems everyone is an expert after the fact. But these Carlton fans were the first to praise Mick’s appointment and happy to sack Brett Ratten last year. Personally I’ve thought Malthouse to be overrated at his time in Collingwood but it’s hard to look past the fact the Pies, chiefly thanks to his recruiting and gameplans are due to play finals for the 8th consecutive season. Add to that every year in the 90′s the Eagles played finals when he was in charge there. Carlton aren’t as great as people make them out to be, they were an attack oriented side and didn’t have that hard-nosed approach premiership sides have, so for Mick to bring that culture in over one season was asking a bit much. With finals looking distinctly unlikely expect a bit of a clear-out from Princes Park in the off season, can see Malthouse looking to recruit a lot of players not afraid of the tough contests, something severely lacking in their 5 goal loss to the Bulldogs last week. Positives for Carlton is Richmond previously have been a good side to play, winning 9 straight before Round 1 this year. Richmond meanwhile have had a up and down 3 weeks, a pasting from Sydney, handing out a pasting to Hawthorn, and cruise control over a Brisbane side that were never any chance of winning. But, they’re having a relatively successful season, and their best players are performing magnificently particularly Cotchin, maybe Brownlow form. Was slightly disappointed Richmond didn’t go on with the win last round, not just for my multi but more that it confirms my thinking that they are inconsistent, but they should have no trouble defeating Carlton with their confidence brimming.
Across the border in Adelaide it’s the Power hosting the Suns at Football Park, the scene of Gold Coast’s first ever win at AFL level. Can history repeat itself? I’m saying unlikely, but this Gold Coast side has proven to be surprise packs, and hardly been blown out this year. Their victory last week against Melbourne was expected but abnormal in some ways, as Ablett was kept to a relatively quiet 19 possessions. Ominously though, since 2007 he’s only been kept to fewer than 20 touches in consecutive weeks just once! So fully expect Gaz to rack up 40touches! The Power though have gone from strength to strength this season while at the time after a Showdown loss I disagreed with Gerard Whateley’s comment about Port playing feel-good footy, he is 100% correct. All the things people want to see from their side, hard contests, big tackles, solid goalkicking, the Power are nailing these under Ken Hinkley, and against the best sides like Geelong last week they were hardly smashed out of the park. At home, hard to go past Port coming up with the win, am slightly concerned for ex-skipper Dom Cassisi who hasn’t had much impact for Port and is out again thru injury, there’s enough quality talent at the club to fill his spot so perhaps his best is beyond him.
Saturday arvo we have the betting man’s nightmare, Essendon against North at Etihad. Interestingly, a win here for North helps them in their aim for 9th spot, ironically to take Essendon’s place in the finals should any punishments be handed out, but who to tip in this one? A side that until 3 weeks ago was a top 4 shot and looking all the goods, or a side that has been consistently inconsistent! The past 3 games have been heavy defeats for the Bombers, mentally they must be shot, the body language shown looks like they know a storm is brewing behind closed doors. Out of confidence, out of form, but not out of the top 8 yet, hard to be overly positive about Essendon right now. North have the 4th best attack in the league and for some time now this has been their strength, score fast and early and hope it lasts 4 qtrs. Well, it didn’t work that way last week, and they’d be kicking themselves over yet another tight loss. But back under the roof, where they have won more than lost at Etihad this season, tipping the Kangas will win here, Ziebell a class player to watch.
Scenes at the Gabba this week
Upto the Gabba Saturday night for a very low key affair as the Lions host GWS. Or at least it would have been before shit hit the fan at Brisbane! Now the focus will be firmly on the players, who will stand up, who will struggle under the pressure of not knowing who their new coach will be, and for the Giants, the question will be can Cameron kick a bag and aim for the Coleman? Otherwise theres little to read into this game, neither side is finals bound, both to have new coaches in 2014, both developing. Hanley is close to signing with the Lions which is a positive in amongst all the negatives of the past few days, and veteran Simon Black is back this week too, interesting to see what moves he decides to make in the offseason whether to retire or play on. Brisbane to win by 8goals, Rich for 30touches.
Of the sides currently looking at that 9th position on the table, West Coast has the team on paper to possibly make it, this week they have a very tough challenge ahead of them though hosting Geelong Saturday night at Subiaco. Interestingly Geelong hasn’t won in Perth in it’s last 3 attempts, but that won’t mean much as this isn;t the same Eagles as 2012, the confidence may be up from last round but they have been below expectations for the season. There was talk about Worsfold during the week, will he or won’t he for next season etc but the fact is, he’s been in this spot before. Poor run of form, injuries, losses and all the stuff that coaches get sacked over, then turns it around. Well, a big away win over Essendon helps that situation, another win here could make things very interesting! The battle at the bounce looks a classic here, the best ruck on one side against the best mids on the other, can Cox have enough influence on this game for West Coast? Time will tell. Do like the cats though, they haven’t been on their game the past month, losses to North and Adelaide plus just cruising along v Port shows they have just the one focus: finals. A loss for the Cats with Hawkins out, dare say he is worth 3+ goals to Geelong when fit and firing. But still like the Cats to win here, not by much, 5goals max.
Onto the not-so-super Sunday, no real previews necessary as 2 games are percentage boosters while the 3rd could be a great game but the reality is neither side has a great shot at finals. Fremantle travel to the MCG to face the Demons, just the second time this season for Freo and in all likelihood not their last for 2013! There’s not much more to say about this than the obvious: Freo to win big, boost their % by keeping Melbourne to under 8goals. An interesting stat off the AFL’s website here, Melbourne averages only 67 points a game this season; Fremantle is conceding only 69 a game! Sydney host St Kilda at the SCG too, and this looks very one-sided aswell, just a matter of how much! Have to like the comeback of young Gary Rohan after an 18thmonth layoff due to injury, but also have to be slightly concerned about the Swan’s form at ANZ. Won’t be there again until finals but still, if the team had a choice they’d want to play at the SCG every game no doubt. Sydney to win by as many as they want, watch for how they perform as the next 2 weeks are big for the Swans, while Watters would hope for 2013 to end as soon as possible!
Rory Sloane, Best on ground last week against North
Sunday’s final game could well be an interesting game, despite neither side a realistic chance to make finals as the Bulldogs host the Crows. After watching how the Bulldogs went about dominating their game against Carlton last week, still unsure why this run of form has come so late in the season! And they are a strong chance to win this, a recent strong record against the Crows at Etihad, plus their newly found aggression with the tackle puts on immense pressure, bet coach Brendan McCartney would be mighty proud of this young side. Looking forward to the matchup of Grant & Talia, both future players for their clubs at opposite ends, while Cooney for the Dogs racks up his 200th game. Adelaide coming off a nervous win against North has the stronger more experienced side on paper, and amazingly behind the 2 expansion sides have the most Rising star nominations in the past 2 seasons. Good times ahead for Adelaide, and leaning for them to win here in a tight one again, but feel they need to get off to a good start and hold onto a lead, unsure the Dogs will give up one!
So tips for this week are Hawthorn, Richmond, port, North, Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney and Adelaide. Below I have my multi for the week thanks to Sportsbet, Feel Richmond should get the job done by more then 3 goals, Gaz most touches in that game, Eagles to get within 4 goals and a tight contest either way between the Dogs & Crows.
Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for the weekend!
Filed under: AFL, Preview
