So here we are at the start of the second round of Championship games, the Australians head across the ditch to Wellington, and the South Africans travel around the world to Mendoza in Argentina to face the Pumas. Put simply, last weekends games saw the 2 favorites come away with very convincing victories, the Wallabies honeymoon under Ewen McKenzie lasted one half, and the Argentinians were screwed after the first 10mins. Hopefully the Pumas can perform better on home turf, and as for the Australians well….we need a lot of luck!
Some on Twitter have talked about putting the Bledisloe games towards the back end of the Championship, making the later games have extra significance for the RC Trophy and the Bledisloe Cup to be up for grabs at the same time. Not a bad idea, but ideally for a strong 4 team competition you’d need 4 strong teams, and right now we have a developing Aus side, an outclassed Puma outfit then in my opinion the top 2 sides in the world.
The other idea floating around and even recommended by ex-Argentinian players is including them in the Super Rugby competition, help their development that way. I can’t see that happening immediately, for example imagine within the space of a fortnight a side playing in Cape Town, then back home in Aus, then fly to Mendoza and trying to perform at their peak on the field! I’m all for developing smaller rugby nations into becoming stronger, for evidence that this is already happening look at previous World Cups, and the minnows aren’t falling away anywhere near as easy in the past.
Onto this week’s matchups:
AUS v NZ
As predicted it was always going to be tough for this Wallabies side to pull off an upset at home, and the Kiwis showed how brilliant they are all across the park. Just after half time the margin got to within 3 points, thanks to the golden boot of Lealilifano who missed just the one kick all night, but 6 trys to 2 and 3 of those in the 2nd half killed off any chance of a win on home soil. The final result ended up 47-29, a big scoring entertaining game, with a hat-trick to Ben Smith making him the second New Zealander to do this against the Wallabies after Doug Howlett. Also, rather annoyingly for Australian fans, is Richie McCaw played well in a game some thought he would be underdone for, and managed to run over for a try too giving him a record 9 against the Wallabies now.
This week’s game is at Westpac Stadium, the Caketin, in Wellington. The last time Australia won in NZ was the playoff for 3rd place in the World cup, but against NZ it’s been a long time between drinks. Infact, neither a Tweet or Facebook post has ever contained the words ‘Australia have won in New Zealand’ the last occasion was in 2001, Matthew Burke with 18points the star at Calrsbrook in Dunedin. Put it this way: Burke will be commentating the game tonight for 10, in the opposition was Jeff Wilson who also has since played ODI’s for NZ, there is no more Calrsbrook as they now play at Forsyth Barr Stadium, and Nathan Sharpe had hair!!!
What does this mean for tonight though? Well put down the glasses, NZ will win. But I’m not sure it’ll be the thrashing everyone expects, as McKenzie says “You can’t fudge experience and I know this group learned a great deal from last week and will be much better for the experience on Saturday night.” Link has kept pretty much the same side, McMeniman is out thru injury so Fardy replaces him, but expect more from the likes of Mogg and Folau, and more game time for Cooper too. Yes, he made some stuff-ups but to anyone that hasn’t watched him with the Reds, you get that with Quade! Brilliance and blunders all in one! The man that rhymes with Cooper in Hooper was BOG for Australia and hopefully he can bring the same effort to Wellington. Tomua deserves another starting chance though, and his battle with opposing debutant flyhalf Tom Taylor will be intriguing. I doubt the Wallabies will win, but should they defend well, keep Taylor under pressure and stop the wingers they can get tho within the current 14point line. Lot’s of big IF’s there.
For the All Blacks, they just need to play like last week, which is the same they play almost every match: defend well, attack well, pile on the points! Rarely see them lose at home, this won’t be any exception, expect a double celebration as they lift the Bledisloe and congratulate Woodcock as he plays his 100th Test. The only query I have is in the Number 10 shirt, Taylor doesn’t even play there for his club the Crusaders, and with the first 3 flyhalves in the country injured, there has to be a slight concern whether he is upto the challenge. One would imagine the other 14 men in black should be more than potent enough to win.
So tip here in All blacks to win, if I was to have a stab in the dark at a full time scoreline I’d say 33-18. For what it’s worth, last week Folau had a rare ugly game, since he’s come into union he has been like a duck to water, but last week was one to forget coughing up the rare chances he had. No first tryscorer for him, but our other 2 bets included -2 to NZ at halftime which won, and Smith to score a try which also won. Apologies for the stuff up last week when I said Smith could be given the kicking duties, mental blank there!
Bets for this game, safety first is NZ the tri-bet win by -7.5 at $1.42. Would be a shock if the Wallabies can make it within a converted try’s distance. Ben Smith was our hero last week, $3 for an anytime try and he bagged the first so that payed off almost immediately. Do we back him again to make it 4 tests in a row to score a try? At $2.60 why not, was superb last week so happy to back him again, as for the Wallabies, O’Connor at $4.50 at a smaller stake would be worth a crack. One more bet that I’d be keen to multi up with a bet in the second game for the weekend is NZ total score to be over 30.5points at $1.87, and am using Sportsbet for these odds and lines. If an Aussie scores a try in the first half, Sportsbet will refund losing first tryscorer bets on the game, so in that case, why not chuck $5 on a roughie like McCaw at $17 FTS too
ARG v RSA
After improving in last year’s Championship, and putting in good performances in the last World Cup, the 73-13 loss was a bit of a shock result. Not that Argentina lost, that was almost a given, but the enormity of the margin and how early on the rot started was a concern, and as outlined earlier it doesn’t help the strength of the 4 team comp. So, as you do when your team cops a 60point loss, 5 changes have been made while the Springboks haven’t changed the starting lineup. Can this Pumas side change things around, and match their efforts of last year when they managed a draw at home? I’m saying not enough for them to win, but enough to be competitive for longer than 10mins.
For those who don’t know much about Mendoza, the site of tonight’s clash, well nor do I. But I do know The Simpsons, and this could emulate the spirit of Argentina on the field tonight, as they seek revenge…..
So where does Argentina need to improve? Well…..all over really! But they were dominated in the scrum I felt, most teams are by the Springboks but a bit of grunt and a change of attitude plus some discipline would certainly help. Never giving yourself a chance when 2 blokes go in the bin for 10mins and the first score against is a penalty try. With that, the set play defense was poor, again, a change of personnel the venue and with a home crowd behind them surely the Pumas won’t be blown away again. As for RSA well they should win, of their 9 tryscorers last week none scored a double showing how even the side played. So really, there’s much more room for improvement from Argentina but I can’t see it being enough.
Last week I went unders and that failed miserably so won’t be looking for a total point score bet this week. But did like the game of Willie LeRoux, superb at fullback and at $3.25 for an anytime try is worth having $10 on. The safety first Tribet is also worth a crack here, -7.5 is $1.42 for RSA and I would multi that with the 30.5 total points for NZ for decent odds of $2.70.
Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for the weekend!
Willie LeRoux & Ben Smith, my anytime tryscorer bets for the weekend
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