Round 3 was definitely an eye opener, leaving us with many questions: How good are the Rebels, Waratahs, Chiefs, Sharks and Blues who all scored strong victories? How poor were the Reds & Cheetahs, who ironically face off this round? And with tipping a shockingly poor 2/7, is writing these weekly previews worth my time and effort?
The answer is with a record of 2/7 for the round, and 7/16 for the season, probably not. If you follow some of the rugby experts on Twitter, most would be sitting with a win loss % between 45-60 right now, always the unexpected upset in the early rounds of Super Rugby making it one of the harder sports to win on. I could make excuses all day, but some of the results on the weekend went against recent history, form, expectations, and logic!!
No wins against the Reds since 2011? No worries for the Tahs! No wins against the Cheetahs ever? No worries for the Rebels. Last year’s premiers facing last year’s bottom side? No worries for the Highlanders covering the line, let alone almost snatching an incredible win. Last year’s semi-finalists and supposedly one of the strongest squads in the strongest conference? No worries for the Blues who came from 14points down to record an incredible 11point win over arch nemesis the Crusaders. It was one of them rounds of rugby, and anyone who tipped successfully or won some cash congrats, but you’ve had some crazy luck!
Personally there was some positives to take from the weekend, had genuine fears for the Rebels in whether they’d have much success this season but they put on a magnificent performance in their first game for the season, exciting the Melbourne crowd and I think all Australian rugby fans want to see a strong Rebels outfit. No, I didn’t tip them, and yes I’m disappointed with the Cheetahs. Another positive was the come from behind victory, nothing keeps a fan more engaged than seeing final minute tries turning the result of games, edge of the seat stuff and we saw 3 of these on the weekend, although I will question the tactics of the Highlanders later on. And one final positive is SportsBanter have given me the opportunity to be part of their team, not just for the rugby season but to have my say on all sports which is a great privilege which I am grateful for. Watch this space!
Hurricanes v Brumbies
Onto this week’s match ups, and first is from the Cake Tin in Wellington as the Hurricanes are back home after a tough tour of the republic, hosting last year’s grand finalists the Brumbies. The Canes must’ve felt hard done by having to start their season against the raging hot favourites the Sharks in Durban, but they weren’t disgraced, the scoreline not quite representative of how close they were in that game up until the final 10mins. Same can be said for last round at Newlands where in all honesty they should have held on for the win there but again, final 10mins lost the game. At home you’d expect them to be stronger, but they face a pretty tough opponent in the Brumbies.
Despite the loss of Pocock for what looks to be a season ending knee injury (same knee he had reconstructed last year) the Brumbies are heading into this game with the wind in their tails after a big win in Perth. Last time these two met in wellington, it was a win for ACT by 12points and the Brumbies have won the last 3 against them, so there should be some confidence in the group. Am a bit stunned the ACT aren’t favourites here, so happy to take 2 bets for this game, firstly Brumbies 1-12points at $3.20 is well worth a crack. These sides are reasonably even matched so a small margin is the go here, also the average total points scored between these sides is 51points, so expect many trys, will look to take Canes’ Savea anytime try scorer at $2.25. The twitter hashtag for this match #HURvBRU is very close to saying Chur Bru, something to help you develop your Kiwi-speak.
Reds v Cheetahs
Really awkward one to predict here, assuming the Reds at home will be very tough to beat, but assuming makes an ass out of u & me! Whilst doing a quick stats blog on home ground advantages I noticed since the 15 team comp began, the Red’s form at home has been spectacular, always a tough journey for visiting teams. Infact, the Cheetahs have never won at Suncorp, but interestingly, the Red’s recent record against RSA sides home & away is 3 wins 6 losses since 2012. Something else to consider, the last 2 seasons on their overseas legs, the men from the Bloem have started awful but won their 2nd game on tour, 3rd time in a row? Also, surprisingly considering how attacking the Cheetahs are and QLD’s ability to put on big scores, the average points per game for these sides is quite low, sitting at under 40points, and I don’t see that changing here with 2 out of form sides.
The Reds were outclassed in every department against the Tahs last round, extremely sloppy defence with many gaps which was the opposite of how they played round 1, consistency an issue already. Early in the season fans will cop that, and a loss to a big rival is acceptable to a point when Israel is running riot! But a strong crowd of 30k plus will be demanding nothing less than victory, and 5 changes across the squad shows coach Richard Graham isn’t mucking about, bringing back Harris, Hanson, Daley, Feauia-Sautia and a welcome return from injury for rocking Rod Davies. While the Reds weren’t great, at home you’d expect them to lift where they have a formidable record, add to that Will Genia had a shocker, but rarely has 2 crap games in a row! Worth remembering how off the pace the Cheetahs were made to look by Melbourne last Friday night too, their poorest performance for some time. Have stated before in this blog my love for Willie…..LeRoux that is, but even he has been very quiet so far this season. The game plan has changed noticeably and now the Cheetahs are playing much more of a kicking game, reverting to the stereotypical RSA style of territory based rugby instead of the flair & dare of old. How this holds up against the Reds, time will tell, I don’t think they can win but I do think they can keep it close and if nothing else low scoring.
The line has been set by bookies at -9 for the Reds, making it tempting to have a crack at the Cheetahs side of that line, in a game where if they want to show they are the real deal and 2013 wasn’t a fluke, they Must win. Starting the season 1-3 is not how sides make the playoffs so away wins are vital. But with the way both sides played last round, safer option could be to avoid a result based bet and look at other avenues. which means trying out bet365 at their total points scored for the match. They have 2 options, under 37points at $2.62 or under 42.5 for $1.91, I’d be looking to play the safer 42.5. Dissapointed that with under 12hrs till kickoff no bookie has any individual betting markets, for try scorers etc. But if you’re wanting a big bet this round, I’d suggest other games, this one just have a small play.
Will preview the rest of the round tonight, follow on Twitter @mugpuntsg all the best!
Filed under: Preview, Rugby
