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It’s now time to look over the final 5 teams in the Super Rugby competition from the shakey isles of NZ, and also time to hit Google in search of the right Maori phrase to use here. And I’ve come up with this one: Whaiwhai, which translates to ‘chase’ or ‘the hunt’, which I feel aptly describes this conference as 4 sides aim to hunt down the title winning Chiefs, while the men from Waikato will look to chase that elusive 3rd title in a row. Could also be used to describe the Australian & South African conferences chasing their tails to match the lofty standards set by the Kiwis. To say the New Zealanders are the best conference in this comp is probably not far off the mark…but incase you need convincing, here’s some stats:
- 12 Super Rugby titles have gone to NZ
- Last 2 year’s titles have been the Chiefs
- Every NZ side has at least made the Final, RSA & Aus have only had 3 each
Need more? Let’s focus on last season then:
- Not only did the Chiefs go back to back in 2013, they also finished on top of the table, had the most bonus points of any team, the best offence of any team, the most tries for, and only once dropped out of the top 4 all season, and that was for just the one week
- NZ teams scored the most tries (215, Aus 189, RSA 176) with each side scoring 40+ for the season
- NZ having the best offence across all the conferences (2011, Aus 1811pts, RSA 1858)
- NZ had the best overall For & Against ( +23overall, Aus -32 overall, RSA +9overall)
- Of the top 15 tryscorers for the season, 9 were from NZ franchises including top tryscorer for the year Frank Halai from the Blues
- Of the top 20 for most runs made for the year, 13 were from NZ sides, and of the total run meteres made, 9 of the top 11 were from NZ
- Of the top 20 line breakers for the season, 12 were from the NZ conference; Aaron Cruden alone had 15 try assists and 12 line-break assists, a stunning playmaker
- Oh…and also, 2 NZ sides produced the most memorable 3mins of rugby of 2013! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTMcNfs366c
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This is to be expected I guess from the World Cup Champions, and it should be no surprise that I feel this years Super Rugby title will yet again head to New Zealand. With the way the Chiefs play and the squad they have, they have a sniff. Crusaders are always up there, near or near abouts so never discount them. The Canes have a lot to improve on, although not as much as the Highlanders who have on paper an excellent side, so they surely can’t go any worse. And the Blues I think will surprise many this year and make a real crack at the playoffs. For those who love a bet, NZ favorites as the nation of the winning franchise at $2.
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So let’s start off with the 2013 Champs, the Chiefs. Some thought, with Sonny Bill Williams heading back to the NRL the Chiefs weren’t going to be as much of a threat last season, but they proved that wrong by having another stellar season & added the unwanted Blue Gareth Anscombe who ended up playing a key role too.(Recruit of the year for mine). This season, while they’ve lost many players to European clubs, which is common amongst all Super Rugby sides, the Chiefs have drafted in Jamie Mackintosh from the Highlanders up front,Robbie Fruean & Tom Marshall from the Crusaders and 100-capper for the All Blacks Mils Muliaina returns from a 3 year stint in Japan. He might be in the final year or so of his career, but shows what pulling power championship winning sides have when it comes to recruiting, particularly in a comp like Super Rugby where the average earnings is between $100-150k. (Generally speaking, player movement in union like most sports is for one of 2 things: money (player moves to Japan or France for an extra zero on their paycheck) or opportunity & chance of winning a title being number 1).
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The squad is still strong highlighted by Aaron Cruden & Liam Messam who were stars last season and strong for the All Blacks too, and they play some of the best passing rugby in the comp so expect the home crowd with their cowbells will still turn up in their droves. While statistically they are the best offensive side in the comp, their defence isn’t, but one thing the Chiefs did often is the counterattack, absorb whatever was thrown at them then fly down the other side of the field for a try. Can they go back to back to back like the Crusaders did in 98-99-00? Wouldn’t put it past them, could also argue their coach Dave Rennie is the best in NZ, priming his players last season just at the right time for finals plus a formidable home record. If the men from Waikato can match their 2013 form, certainties for finals I feel, but am slightly concerned about a drop in performances matched with improvement from other franchises, they did after all just lose a trial match to the Reds. Couple of players to watch, Cruden has won the Chief’s player of the year award 2 years running, no coincidence in their title wins he has played a major role. Expect Tim Nanai-Williams to score plenty of tries again, and big prop Ben Tameifuna to ramble over the line for a few too. And also watch for Rhys Marshall who started out last year for the Chiefs, a rarity that he played Super Rugby before ITM cup, who should get much more game time this season, a cheap buy perhaps for fantasy rugby & SuperBru fans.
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Next up is the 7 time title winning Crusaders, who have made the finals ever year since 1998, an awesome run of success that’s unmatched at this level. And as is the case every season, couldn’t write them off to win the trophy yet again! Traditionally slow starters to the season but strong finishers has always been the Christchurch way, expect similar in 2014, and expect a large chunk of the side to be rewarded with All Black caps later in the year too. The criticism of the side in recent years is no title since 2008 (normally not a bad effort but the Crusaders have standards) and that coach Todd Blackadder is a bit too conservative, not making the decisive plays early enough, not enough development in the squad etc etc but reality is, the team hasn’t exactly gone backwards, just plateauing. Big loss for them is Dan Carter who is having a sabbatical of sorts in the same way Richie McCaw did last season before returning for the finals. But they have brought it a more than adequate replacement from the Highlanders in Colin Slade so it will be interesting to see who gets the kicking duties between him & Tom Taylor until Carter returns.
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The best part about this Crusaders side is their forward pack, 1 thru to 8 are about as strong as you’ll see even at international level so these are the guys who are going to setup the wins this season, and I’ve got a feeling may lead them close to a title. But there are aspects to their game that can and need to improve. Firstly, the form of some of their backs, mainly Israel Dagg needs to lift. But also, before last season, the Christchurch franchise was well known for having the best away from home record but this took a dip last season with just 3 wins away. Improving on these 2 will make them a big threat, watch for who becomes the chief playmaker in Carter’s absence, and for Guilford & Dagg to improve on the wing & fullback. Oh, and there’s a guy called Kieran who plays alright too, and won the IRB player of the year award for 2013!
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Now to the Auckland Blues, or the Benji Blues if you believe the hype, nothing else has been made of the side bar their big name recruit for 2014. Unlike SBW who made an instant impact to Super Rugby with his exceptional offloading ability plus size & strength, Benji Marshall will probably take a season to get his feet in a more demanding position if he is to play in the number 10. Personally I think he might become a good flyhalf or fullback, but unsure if he will get to the level he says he wants to get to, which is playing for the All Blacks. Having Benji has brought a lot of positive attention to the Blues which is just the top of the busy off-season trading period they had. The amount of players coming & going is about the same as the other NZ conferences but the Blues have some bigger name changes than other sides. 2 of their best have gone to French Rugby in Rene Ranger & Ali Williams, and the squad additions include Jeremy Kaino coming back from his stint in Japan, Nonu & Woodcock from the Highlanders and Tom Donnelly from the Crusaders, each of whom has All Black experience with Tony Woodcock one of a select group of 100gamers.
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The squad is strong in all aspects, and their coach Sir John Kirwan has in some areas improved the side last season, the addition of another Knighted one in Sir Graham Henry could make an impact. Although in their 2 trials so far this summer they have leaked nearly 70 points in 2 games, defence obviously not their greatest concern, and when you have the highest tryscorer for 2013 in Frank Halai in the squad sometimes that issue can be overcome! But I do have some concerns, starting with Maá Nonu. Many times last season for Highlanders he was reckless & ill disciplined, not to mention down on form. This is a strange trend with some All Blacks players, it’s almost like they aren’t fussed with their Super Rugby form so long as they keep winning at international level. Looking too deeply into this? Perhaps, but if Nonu wants to be an asset for the Blues, he just can not give away penalties so cheaply! Worryingly too, the Blues finish to 2013 was very lackluster, losing 7 of their last 9 games, and the 2 wins were slim, 1 & 4point margins. The positive spin on that, is they earned 6 bonus points for losing within a converted try, showing they don’t need to improve massively to make big gains. But have to win their games in NZ if they are a serious chance to make the finals and I give them every chance of doing that. They couldn’t finish worse than they did in 2013!
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Talking about couldn’t go worse, lets have a look at the Highlanders from the deep south. 17 wins across the 2 seasons prior to 2013, and then just 3 wins in all of last season sums things up pretty neatly, particularly when they didn’t manage their first points until round 12! Everything that could’ve gone wrong did, and they managed to find new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, 5 of their losses by less than a converted try! They pushed sides, there’s no doubting they had ability and talent across the squad, on paper it looked strong, but on the park it became tough to watch. Leakiest defence this side of Port Elizabeth too. Things weren’t good for the Dunedin boys, and their offseason losses aren’t pretty either, with the following exiting the club: Hose Gear, Maá Nonu, Colin Slade, Jason Mackintosh, Andrew Hore and Tony Woodcock. Fair to say the replacements brought in aren’t exactly world beaters either, although it will be curious to see the development of yet another Argentinian taking their career to Super Rugby. Matias Diaz will come in as Woodcock’s replacement, and if they have their smarts about them at the Highlanders, they’d get him to work with Big Brad Thorn who must be into his 60′s now, and milk every drop of rugby knowledge he can.
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Can they improve on last year? Yes, ofcourse, but every team can. This Highlanders squad has lower targets to meet though after a dismal 2013, but they could possibly pick up double their wins tally this year, all going to plan. Is it realistic? Maybe. Unlike in other competitions, the fixture in Super Rugby with its 3 conferences stays pretty similar year on year, so there’s no reward for finishing top or bottom of the table as far as who you play against, and no such thing as an easy or tough draw. So this makes it harder for the Highlanders who can’t pick up the ground they lost last season. With the All Black’s try scoring machine in Ben Smith, things are possible, but I can’t see the Highlanders making the finals in 2014.
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Finally onto the Hurricanes from the nation’s capital Wellington. Like that old Queensland tourism ad, the Cane’s style of play can be fantastic to watch, with a stellar back line and adventurous play, ‘beautiful one day’. Unlike the Queensland tourism ad, they aren’t perfect the next, instead they become the most frustrating side to watch! Their flair is a strength and weakness, and in a way, they are turning into the Cheetahs of old, all attack & forget tackling, but maybe not to the same degree. Like I mentioned, the backline is very strong, from 8 to 15 all can score trys and particularly like the work of Julian Savea & TJ Perenara who both racked up 6 each last season. But similarly to the Highlanders, they faded bigtime at the end of the season, winning only 3 of their final 11 matches, with the 4th worst defence on points conceded too.
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The Hurricanes haven’t quite been on the same transfer merry-go-round as other sides have, leaving the side mostly as is for 2014. But theirs enough in the squad to suggest they should go ok. Personally though, I see them struggling this season, while every other side has recognised their weaknesses, and changed their squad, the Canes solidarity in keeping the same guys and hoping old dogs can learn new tricks may work against them. You could view this glass half full or glass half empty, but there needs to be a gameplan change if nothing else. Expect Beauden Barret & newcomer Marty Banks to star in the halves with Barret aiming for more All Blacks caps, and also look out for prop Jeffery Toomaga-Allen this season after making his All Black’s debut late last year. But don;t expect the Canes to play finals.
So overall, I can see 3 of the NZ sides making the playoffs, the other 2 I doubt can make it, but who knows. There’s often one surprise in this conference, whether it’s the Highlanders failure last year or the Chiefs success the year prior. I’m tempted to beleive that surprise could be the Blues if not sneaking into the top 6, certainly giving it a good crack. Below are my futures bets I’ll play for the season, odds again thanks to Sportsbet. Follow on twitter @mugpuntsg as well as @spultured, @sports_banter and newcomers @TheWiseBet who will all be helping me out with my weekly quick previews this season. 6 sleeps to go, can’t wait for it to start!
To miss the playoffs: $1.33 Hurricanes / No real value at short odds but to me, they aren’t going to have better seasons than say the Chiefs & Saders. Maybe one to put in multis?
Top pointscorer: Gareth Anscombe $11 / Already have one bet with Lealiifano at $21 but Anscombe won’t be too far off the mark either I’m guessing. Scores tries but should he get the kicking duties each week, can easily build on his 2013 tally of 166pts. Happy to work around the fave in this market.
Winning nationality: NZ $2 / Whether it’s the Cheifs or Crusaders mainly, they both have the big game Winning finals experience that other sides up the very top don’t have.
2014 Super Rugby Champions: Crusaders $5.50 / (On Betfair)In an earlier preview I tipped the Sharks as a good one to bet via Betfair and look long term at trading them out and I’d be looking to do the same here with the Saders. Genuinely feel they are the 2 best sides going around, Chiefs a very close 3rd.
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