Last night didn’t exactly go to plan, the Brumbies were more convincing winners than the 8point margin suggests, and the Reds & Cheetahs put on a belter at Suncorp. A late Canes try managed to get our Brums 1-12 bet in unfortunately this writer put in a different tip for his #peoplesmulti and missed out by half a point, thanks to a missed conversion after the buzzer. Our anytime try scorer Savea also had a bit of a mare, which is kind of reflective of his side who have been consistently inconsistent! Meanwhile in Brisvegas, remember me saying about the average scores between these sides was low and to take the under 42.5points? Yeah well….43-33 FT got that way off! Also worth pointing out, the line during the week was 9.5, kickoff went to 8.5 so even though I was reluctant to have a bet on the result, it still pays to stay observant watching the odds. Sometimes following stats and recent history is meaningless, the Red’s only conceded 30plus twice last season and have let thru that amount 2 weeks in a row now. More impressively though, last time QLD put 40plus on a side was rd 12 2012 v the Chiefs, made the finals that season so good signs for Reds fans.
So overall, 3 bets, 2 losers and a $3.20 winner, I’d say thats a poor start to the round. Onward & Upward we go.
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Crusaders v Stormers
This battle may not go down as one for the ages, but it will be significant for both sides. Starting with the home team at Christchurch who have been within striking distance twice in 2 weeks now, even got to 14points ahead before choking badly to lose by 11. Mental issues perhaps? Who knows but it’s like a switch was flicked and they went from Israel Folau hat-trick good to Jesse Mogg fumble-and-give-away-a-try bad. They let thru 29 unanswered points, thats all you need to know. Add in the skipper Richie McCaw going down with a broken thumb and likely to miss 6 weeks, things aren’t looking so positive. But, luckily for them, they face a Stormers outfit who are also not travelling the best, and the Saders have a good recent record against them winning 8 of the last 10. Todd Blackadder has brought 7 changes to the side this week, and while they should deservedly start favourites with the home advantage, $1.25 is so low it must be avoided!
At least the men from Cape Town have had a win though, albeit by the barest of margins and never really looked like winning that game against the Canes last round until the final few minutes! While McCaw is out, we have another ugly looking forward who plays great coming back into the fold in Schalk Burger for the Stormers, which will give the team a lift one would assume. Also coming off the bench for his Stormers debut is the unpronounceable Sailosi Tagicakibau, good luck trying to get your tongue around that one! Their gamestyle is similar so far to last season, not overly adventurous so Catrakillis’s boot could be vital here particularly as thats been a bit of a weakness for the Saders so far. I wouldn’t expect them to get blown out of the water here nor do I think the Stormers will put 25points on the board. A good way to put this into perspective is via a tweet from @PlanetRugbyAK :
‘On a scale from Stormers to Reds, how is your team’s attacking mindset?’ (Keep in mind the Reds scored 29 points in the first half overnight, Stormers took 2 full games to reach that)
How important is this game? Deeply, the South African conference looks like 4 teams gunning for the 2nd finals spot while the Sharks are strong as, which means despite their poor start the Stormers have plenty to play for. And much the same for the Crusaders, for the sake of their fan’s sanity and for Backadder to keep his job, they must win. A game I’d rather not bet on, so will only have one tiny $5 joke bet which could pay off providing the Saders get the first kick at goal. Unconvinced with the kicking options they have, so $3.25 for first kick to miss is worth a tiny gamble. Of course if the Stormers have the first kick the bet is screwed! Saders to win but not by a heap.
Force v Rebels
The Sea of Blue host tonight’s game in Perth with the 2 traditional cellar dweller teams from the Australian conference colliding. Although to call them both that ignores the very impressive Rebels game last week who everyone in the rugby world has raved about. Never have Melbourne played so well, with a visible working game plan, it was great to see them step up their game despite having money against them. Led wonderfully by Scott Higginbotham and a back row with a lot of ability, they could shake up a few teams who take them lightly. Much credit has to go to new coach Tony McGahan instilling belief and discipline into this side, who despite their travelling record I believe are good things to win this week.
Meanwhile, there’s not much positive signs to discuss with the Force, at the very opposite of the scale to the Rebels. Trying to pick them out, Godwin & McCAlman have been the standouts, but really the rest aren’t at the same level every other side is at. To keep it short & sweet, this is about the only heroics they’ve shown this year….
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Bet: Melbourne are favourites to win, am very keen to take them at $1.68, only bet needed really thats how keen I am on Melbourne.
Qoute of the week: Brilliant.
“There’s no real negatives out of the performance, apart from the fact that we lost,”
- Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph
Follow on twitter @mugpuntsg
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