It’s here, just days away from the start of the 2013 Ashes series!
So we are part way through the final practice matches for both the Aussies and the English now, fair to say one team’s prep has been more tumultuous than the other! Changing Coach just over a fortnight out from the most important cricketing series on the team’s calendar could go one of 2 ways for the Australians: it either works and Boof looks like the messiah, or it fails miserably and the team fails to pick up a win much like their most recent Test tour.
This Australian fan has been pessimistic for the past 8months since their team was unable to bowl out a South African side on the ropes in Adelaide. So the expectations were low with Mickey Arthur in charge, regardless how great or not the England side were playing against lesser opposition. With Arthur gone and Darren Lehmann thrust into the role, who knows what difference that will make, would like to think those with fragile mental states like Watson and Hughes can lift or even stabalise, and can see Boof looking to stick with a very similar side throughout the series. Also, strongly believe the current workout against Worcestershire and Somerset last week will NOT give an accurate read on form. Much the same for this England side playing Essex now, both Worcestershire and Essex in the lower division of County cricket for starters and aren’t playing their best X1′s against practically full-strength international sides.
What I do expect to be the deciding factor more than anything else, is the opening partnerships of both sides. The squad Australia has chosen has more specialist openers than specialist middle order batsmen making potentially 3 guys batting out of their normal or favorite positions. For England, all we know is Captain Cook will face the first delivery, whoever down the other end is still a guess! These guys will be my focus for the first Test.
Watson and Rogers at the crease, confirmed by Lehmann as Australia’s Openers for Trent Bridge
Shane Watson smashing relatively unknown blokes around the park for a quickfire ton is great for his ego, but when it’s a packed house and James Anderson is steaming in swinging it both ways, that’s when we’ll see what form he is Really in! What must be remembered for Watto here is this: his best batting position has been opening, it was where he made his cricketing breakthrough last Ashes tour infact. But the reality is, he fails where it counts most. The century he scored yesterday was his first in First Class cricket since 2010, while his aggressive nature works well for him in ODI’s and recently very well in the IPL he hasn’t managed to convert that in Tests.
His opening partner is to be Chris Rogers, who played his one and only test back in 2008 at the WACA and struggled. Now, after scoring mountains of runs and even in his mid 30′s Rogers is in the batting form of his life, and I dare say Australia’s fortunes in this series rely on our batsman’s shoulders. Should Rogers bring his excellent County and Shield record to Trent Bridge, I’d suggest he will play every Ashes Test, both home and away. A solid opener, something Australia has been missing of late, but again, at this level against one of the best bowling attacks in the world, I’ll leave my judgements until after the First Test but hoping he can do well, not just score big but soak up time in the center as well. Interesting to hear Watson compare Rogers to Simon Katich, who together were Australia’s most recent best openers and who Shane played best with. No doubt the man responsible for the demise of Katich in the Test side, skipper Michael Clarke will have noticed this.
Comparing to the English openers, or opener for now, the Aussies lack the same experience and big game form. Alastair Cook, English captain and opening bat, is one of the game’s best right now. An imposing average just under 50 and a total of 25 centuries, the most for an Englishman and 5 of those against Australia, plus 2 50′s, fair to say he has no fear of whoever we select to bowl. Cook would be my special for top runscorer for England, expect him to set the scene with the bat, a captain’s knock to settle his side. That and the makeup of the England batting lineup is much the same as Australia’s, not quite 100% settled. Infact can’t even say who will open with Cook now days out from the start of the Test!
Who will Cook open with come Trent Bridge?
It’s difficult to know what the exact makeup of the England XI will be, but do feel the likes of Pieterson, Trott, Root, Cook and Prior should make up the majority of their batting, and compared to what the Australian’s potential team will be it looks solid and strong. For what it’s worth, below is who I believe will line up for the Australians:
Watson / Rogers / Cowan / Clarke / Hughes / Khawaja / Haddin / Pattinson / Harris / Starc / Lyon
The top 4 looks about as solid as Australia can get although Watson and Cowan both could be shakey, Clarke will obviously be expecting to score majority of the runs and continue his rich vein of form. Hughes is the lucky selection here as I feel he’s no better or worse than Warner, but a better bat than Steve Smith. Haddin selected purely for keeping ability over Wade, not the worst bat but has a tendency to play the stupid shot that get’s him out cheap and early. Bird would consider himself unlucky, but have to include Harris whenever fit, Starc for variety coming in from left arm over, Lyon also for variety. Pattinson for me needs to be aggressive and pick up wickets or Bird or maybe even Faulkner will take his spot, with Faulkner adding extra batting ability too. And now for England, although this I am less certain of and is more guesswork:
Cook / Root / Trott / Pieterson / Bell / Bairstow / Prior / Swann / Broad / Finn / Anderson
The squad as mentioned before, yet to be announced but Root would likely be a future Test partner to Cook up the top of the order, if he can do it in the Ashes he’ll open the rest of his career! Unlucky for Compton perhaps, but that’s life for a player in a relatively strong cricket nation. Bopara always seems to be on the fringes but could’nt pick him on consistency, much like Bresnan too. Otherwise it’s a very settled lineup, expect Trott to be in the runs, and KP to attack from ball 1 and aim to get the mental edge. Swann would be in his element against all the Aus lefthanders, but would still be wise to look up the tapes from the recent Aus tour of India. Put simply, the Aussies struggled bigtime against Man of the Series winner Ravi Ashwin, who had helpful pitches but still, isn’t as good a bowler as Swann.
Swann to take the most wickets this First Test?
Below is a snapshot from Sportsbet of the odds for Highest runscorer, first innings only. Clarke would be the safe bet here, very hard to tip the others on lack of form, but will be liking Trott for England. For a value roughy, should the Aussies collapse into a heap, Haddin at $12 would be worth getting behind to bat with the tail.
For the Bowlers, below again from Sportsbet are the odds for highest wicket taker again for only the First innings. With both the batting and bowling, my tip would be for the match over both innings, but as of right now no bookmaker I have found can offer this, only for the first dig. With the amount of left handers in the Aus batting lineup, Swann looks tempting, but 2 things to remember. Hasn’t got the greatest record against Australia, ave of 40 and no 5-for’s in England, plus with quality up top in Anderson he might not get enough oppurtunities for wickets. Tempting though with the left handers at disposal, but very difficult to go past Anderson who will get the most chances. For the Aussies, Harris will be the most challenging for the Poms to face but whether he gets the wickets, thats what I’m not sure of and thinking Starc. Harris to trouble the batsmen then Starc to give them a release of pressure lose concentration and play a loose shot. A good theory anyway!
The overall match odds are well in favor of England, $1.90 for the win, Aussies $3.90 and the draw at $3.35. As far as betting, this is a Test where if you are going to have a bet pre-game, make it small, as there are way too many unknowns and variables, especially the English weather. So betting in play becomes a better option for the win and draw markets, and then for individual markets go heavier later in the series with more confidence in their form. Will go for the draw in this first match, due simply to the rain, expect another update to this post on the day of the First test.
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