NRL
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Who will score the most points Friday night at AAMI Park? My tip, can’t go past Cam!
So we’re back to a full compliment of Rugby League this week, no Origin disruptions, no byes, which means a proper preview with confidence can be done. One thing about this period I will say, haven’t found one person who likes the current Origin setup of one game every 3 weeks, and midweek games. Seems every opinion piece says how much better the whole series would be if it wasn’t milked for every last drop and stretched to go so long. Remembering it’s not just these 3 games spread over 9 weeks, but also the City v Country game that works as a lead in for NSW before that, and every round pre and post an Origin match the NRL clubs suffer. Come Game 3, who will remember the try scorers from game 1, it’s been so long!
Alas, thanks to a $1billion plus TV rights deal 9 will most likely keep the status quo, it’s still a monster rating winner for them so why change it. One good thing that has been implemented is a fixed draw, unlike in past seasons where fans would only know of the first 6-8-10 rounds what days/nights their team was playing, now it’s been the first 20 rounds set in stone and today releasing the final 6 rounds. Understandable the TV networks want the highest rating teams playing in the best time slots but at least it’s now done early enough for fans and teams to plan ahead. Feel for the Raiders and Warriors, teams that constantly seem to get dudded and not score the Free to Air time slots, how they can convince sponsors to come on board and grow their brands is tough when you only have the limited Cable market. Click here for the full NRL fixture.
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A reminder of what the Perth based club that want to join the NRL looks like, the West Coast Pirates
Onto this week’s round, and it’s truly a National round with 6 states and territories hosting NRL this weekend. Some may say supporters at Brookvale Oval are from another planet too, but that’s not for me to judge. But this is exactly what the NRL needs to do more, seeing as 10 of the 16 teams based in NSW and they call it a national competition, isn’t quite good enough. Compare that to say the A-League that has a team in each mainland state in a much smaller competition. The 3 games away from the more traditional grounds are in Mackay which should draw a good knowledgeable and passionate crowd; Perth which should also draw decent numbers and would be watched carefully by administrators keen to expand into WA; and Darwin which will be a fascinating spectacle as I’m unsure what sort of Rugby League following there is, but good on the Titans and Panthers to take that match up North.
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Memories of Perth, similar to a Slip & Slide!
The big games for me will be Friday night, Storm v Broncos and the match in Mackay as the Bulldogs take another home game up to Ben Barba’s home town facing the Knights, who looked as superb as the Titans looked dreadful in last round’s game. Below are my tips in GREEN and bets in RED. For the record, last week’s NRL multi failed, first leg came in easy with South’s covering the HT line and smashed the Raiders in the process. But Penrith’s late try ruined it all and made the margin more than the 1-10 I wanted, couple of times Penrith has overachieved on me! Also, Manly could’nt overcome the great defence of the Roosters, downed by 6points, had some decisions go their way who knows, they had more than enough chances to win, as it was that last leg went down too. A dismal 4 from 7 tips too, can only try again and get better!
Storm v Broncos: That very overused cliché of Mate v Mate in Origin has the same meaning here with QLD teammates pitted against eachother. Fair to say though, Origin hurts these 2 clubs the most, Melbourne weren’t even a shadow of the side they normally are last week and lost poorly to Wests, while the Broncs did well to keep up with the Warriors at home and almost took it to extra time had Parker’s final kick gone straighter. With their best players back and at home, expecting the Storm to win here, perhaps in a low scoring gritty game, line at -9 is maybe a touch too high for me, but like the stats market for Smith to have more points than Prince at $1.40, can’t help myself from having a Friday night punt!
Sharks v Tigers: The Tigers are on a bit of a streak now winning 4 of their last 5 and looked very much at home in the torrential rain last Friday. Whether Benji’s contract talks will distract his performance who knows, maybe a big game here could keep his critics a bit less noisy! Personally, I think he’s a very valuable player, but not so much at Wests, there would be other sides that’d perform better with him in it. The Sharks couldn’t do the business up in Townsville and the way they fell off at the end of their game suggests their 2nd stringers that were on the park are a big step down from their best XIII. How will the effect of upto 4 ex-Tigers playing against their old side have? Think it might get the best out of them, leaning to a tight win to Cronulla at home, no bets here
Dragons v Roosters: Sydney had a great defensive game against Manly who I thought were a good thing, and still rate them highly so big thumbs up to the Chooks. SBW and Maloney have been top pickups for them this season, and are looking to bring up their first win at Kogorah since 1997, hard to believe it’s been that long! The Dragons meanwhile can take the most unwatchable side medal, playing some dour footy in parts this season, last week one example. Way back at the start of the season, had a crack at them saying their list doesn’t excite, next thing they won 3 straight and I was to look like a fool. Now though, 2nd bottom and only a game ahead of Parra in last spot, St George fans would be very worried. Earlier this season against Penrith they were left on duckeggs for the first time ever at Kogorah, have a feeling if Sydney bring their A-game it could be the second shut-out in the space of a few weeks. Sydney by as many as they want, tempted to go the $8 for Roosters to win to nil, but safer bet is they will cover the line of 11.5 at $1.90
Titans v Panthers: Coming to you from TIO stadium in Darwin, where the crocs make front page news and when it rains, it bloody pours! Although weather reports say it’ll be dry and around 32degrees with 50% humidity, this was the headline story in the NT News. The Titans were beyond woeful last round, seems every time I back them with confidence they perform so badly it hurts. Not only that but they lost Idris to injury, and lost a chance to consolidate a top8 spot and leapfrog Manly. Penrith meanwhile passed the Dragons with relative ease and with an unchanged stable lineup, perhaps without big stars like other sides, should get the job done in the territory. Penrith should look to exploit the young players poised to fill in the big shoes of Idris and Zillman, also out injured, and Panthers at $2.05 H2H look a good bet but will play it safe and say they get within a converted try, PYOL at +6.5 $1.44.
Raiders v Cowboys: Canberra were pretty awful last week, their away record pretty much speaking for itself, they are struggling. Back at home though and they really are the Green Machine, going 6 from 6, crazy how the game pans out like that! The same can also be said for the Cowboys, who also have been poor away but stars at home, finishing strongly against the Sharks last round and key playmaker Thurston in form. Impossible to pick this one, simply going the home side on their record, no bets here.
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Happy Days: Ben Barba after last year’s match at Mackay, waving to his home-town fans
Bulldogs v Knights: Another team that struggles to travel, Newcastle (seems to be a common trend here?) blasted past the Titans at home, in what was an incredible display of tryscoring. 36-0 at HT shows how on fire they were before cruising along in the 2nd half. Strangely before last week, their last win was against the Bulldogs…shows how up and down their form has been! The Dogs meanwhile took a game to Mackay last season and trounced the Storm of all teams 20-4 thanks to a blistering display from hometown hero Ben Barba. Although not in Dally-M form this year, still expect Ben to give everything to his home crowd. Bulldogs for me despite coming off the bye should win here, no bets though as Newcastle are still hot after last week.
Rabbitohs v Warriors: Interesting game this, hard to go past the men from Redfern but if there is one side that always has a knack of giant killing it’s the Warriors. Their record against the Storm is testament to that! Since being thoroughly destroyed in round 10 by the Panthers, New Zealand haven’t lost a match and have somehow jumped into a big chunk of teams between 4th and 11th on the ladder separated by just 1.5 wins! They still have the 3rd most leaky defence though, so expect the Rabbits to push through that with ease, the form they are in is sensational to watch. I like Souths to win here, not prepared to say they will win the premiership but will admit they are favorites right now. No point being in front in July when the real season defining moments start in 10weeks time. Souths to win but playing safe, no bets. (It’s a Warriors game, no betting, a new rule I’ve self-imposed!)
Sea Eagles v Eels: Manly at home on a Monday night again and look it’s simple here, the Sea Eagles have been close but not quite against the best sides but against the bottom sides have been pretty comfortable and expect the same here. Also, $1.01 Ricky Stuart will have a crack at the refs, it’s just what he does these days. Eventually he will realize the more he whinges the less likely they will change just for one loud coach. Focus should be more on getting his under-performers up and running again, the line set at a crazy 16 but probably on the money! Only going for something small and relatively conservative though, Manly to cover a HT line of -4 at $1.50.
This week’s multi below thanks as always to Sportsbet, putting togetehr all my bets gets a 4 leg multi including Manly to cover -4 at HT, Sydney to cover their -11.5 line at FT, Smith to score more points than Prince, and Panthers to get at least within a converted try of the Titans. All up, just short of 6/1.
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One last thing on Origin, if Barba hadn’t missed the start off his season due to off-field issues, I feel he would be playing Origin now. Billy Slater hasn’t been at his usual best in the number 1 jersey this series, feel Barba might be in line for next year.
Super Rugby
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The match of the round without a doubt, Crusaders hosting the Chiefs
Second week now of just the Kiwi and RSA teams, last week managed to tip the 3 easy wins for the Chiefs, Crusaders and the Bulls, all 3 in contention for the title. Missed out on the Blues win in the final seconds as they let thru a late Sharks try, but managed to pick the correct side of the line for them and Waikato and it was all down to the Cheetahs to settle the 11/1 multi. And they failed miserably, just my bloody luck! It seemed the extended break did the men in Orange zero favors as the Stormers dealt a demolishing and left the Cheetahs without scoring a try. A cruel way to finish the round I feel, and now it must be said the team I praised so highly a few times this season, could miss out of the playoffs, or make up the numbers if they finish in the top 6.
Below are my tips in GREEN, bets in RED, small multi this week is just adding the 2 bets together, for small all up price just over $3, Friday night’s matchup a must watch!
Crusaders v Chiefs: Both teams playing attacking, try-scoring entertaining rugby and can easily make a case for both of these sides to meet in the Final. If you can’t watch this game, you’ll be out of luck as this should prove to be a humdinger, easily more watchable than whatever the Wallabies v Lions can dish up. Really liking how the Chiefs go about their rugby now after some sub-par performances, but Crusaders were superb in their last 20 to push away the Highlanders and win convincingly. I so want the Chiefs to win at very good odds, but feel they’ll need a few favors, in the likes of Carter missing at goal and a lift from Messam on the pitch. Going completely with my heart here and tipping Waikato, but to be conservative, to get with a converted try is $1.70 +7.5 and that’s what I’ll be betting.
Hurricanes v Highlanders: Canes have a knack of looking great against the bottom sides but not good enough against the best, think we’ll see the evidence of this when comparing last week v the Chiefs and this week when they should easily win against the Highlanders. Don’t get me wrong the blokes from the South Island have improved slowly as the season has gone on, but coming to the end now they can just write off a disappointing 2013 and focus on next season. Hurricanes by plenty but no bets.
Cheetahs v Blues: This may be tighter than the odds suggest, although the Cheetahs need to show something to prove they are playoffs worthy. Had Auckland held on last week, this would have been a mini-final with the winner to make the top 6, but as it is, the Orange men hold an advantage and at home, should get the win here. Expecting it to be tight, the Blues want to finish their RSA tour strong.
Kings v Stormers: Look, same as last round, the Kings have been far ahead of what was expected of them but the season has gone a month too long for them it seems. Stormers by as many as they want, no value in the $1.10 fave, especially as the Kings have still been scoring well but letting through way too many easy points, difficult to pick a good margin here.
Bulls v Sharks: A cracker to finish off the round from Loftus, had to double check my stats sheets when I read the Bulls hadn’t lost since March! And even that loss was due to a very controversial late penalty awarded to the opposition! Fair to say they are in championship winning form. Sharks though had their own stroke of amazingness with a last minute try to snatch the win over the Blues last Saturday. A tight game again is expected, including the return of RSA Gun Bismarck DuPlessis, but the Bulls for me should win. The way they have been scoring tries has been so free flowing it’s no wonder they have the 2nd best For&Against. Bulls to cover the -6.5 line at $1.90
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Just had to put this in somewhere, made me chuckle
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