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NRL
No preview last round due to poor health sorry, but undoubtedly anyone that reads this blog also reads a few other tipping sites so hope you got onto some winners! Heading into the pointy end of the season now, and with Origin Game 3 on tomorrow night, it’s the biggest time of the year for League. Although it must be said, the previous shortened round did throw up 4 points of interest. Firstly, 2013 will be just the 2nd year the Broncos have missed out on finals in seemingly, well…ever, most worryingly is other seasons were they have dropped games due to 6-8 Origin reps not playing, this season it’s just 3, and even then they have often backed up after midweek Origin. Ivan Henjak didn’t survive after not making finals, will Anthony Griffin? Broncos fans are notoriously fickle, an absence of September action could spell the end for Hook.
Secondly, even at home against a traveling Manly side who haven’t had the best of form (forget the Parra win, that’s like beating GWS in the AFL right now) the Cowboys couldn’t show enough for their fans. A poor final half hour they went from 2 points ahead to eventually go down by 20points, and look less likely than the Broncs to play finals. Manly meanwhile look strong in patches and could well finish top 4. The big news to come from this game wasn’t in Townsville but back in Sydney were news broke at around HT that Benji Marshall would be leaving the Tigers at season’s end. The rumors thru the season had Benji linked to a move into SuperRugby with either the Blues or the Waratahs, or even Japan rugby where the money would be tax free. There had also been speculation of a move to the Warriors (personally think it’d be the best move if he wants to stay in League) and, like when any big name goes out of contract, they for whatever reason get linked to the Titans. With another few rounds of the season to go, don’t expect Benji to make a decision immediately, but most likely it will be a move to Union.
Finally, the scheduling I again have to have a rant about. How the biggest game of the season, the Grand Final replay between the Bulldogs and the Storm was tucked away on a Saturday twilight fixture with all the big names out to Origin baffles me. This is one of those games that you want as a standalone Friday night Footy, it’s a big game that would pull big numbers. But alas the NRL has managed to stuff it up, Canterbury ended up smashing Melbourne to nil in a game that gives the Dogs a false confidence of where they are at. Fully expect the Storm to bounce back at full strength.
Onto Origin, the odds are showing QLD as faves and deservedly so after they way they won Game 2, which feels like forever ago now! In that match, Cam Smith was given MOM which was an unusual pick considering he was good but not spectacular like Thurston was. Expect JT to bring his A-game and worth having money on as MOM, my roughy for QLD is Sam Thaiday and for NSW Greg Bird in the unlikely event that they sneak in to win the series. Tipping QLD 1-12, currently around the $2.30 mark.
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Can big Willie smash his way through the Panther’s defense this week? Tightest game of the round to pick!
This week’s NRL tips below in Green, Bets in Red with a multi underneath, all the home sides this week:
Tigers v Warriors: Had the news of Benji not come out, would have gone with the Warriors, but feel with a bit more mental freedom Benji could get back to some of his old form heading into the back end of this season, like Wests +4 line at $1.90 at home.
Raiders v Eels: What can you say of Parra, they’ve had a shocker season! Without a win since Rd 9, facing Canberra who haven’t lost at home this season. Raiders have been up and down, but dunno if they warrant a -17 head start! No bet here.
Roosters v Sharks: Roosters defense here will win them the game, although watch the game from Carney, almost won their game last round single-handedly. Feel it won’t be a blowout, so going to use the Pick our Own Line here, Sharks within 2 converted tries +12.5 at $1.69 the bet.
Panthers v Knights: Flip of a coin job this although leaning Penrith at home, Knights haven’t been fantastic away from Newcastle, and less players backing up from Origin. No bet on this game, but have a question for anyone who reads this, are the Knights the most experienced team in the league? Or most players with 100+ games under their belt?
Sea Eagles v Titans: Talk about a tough ride home, the Titans face every side above them before seasons end. If they play finals, they have thoroughly earned their spot but I’m doubtful they can. The way Manly flicked the switch and burst thru the Cows makes me believe they can do the same at home Sunday by a decent margin. Bet here is the Wolfman David Williams to score a try anytime at $2.20
Rabbitohs v Dragons: Rabbits with ease, line here is -17.5, should cover, wait until the night though and see if you can get a play at total points for St George. If it’s say above or below 10points, go below!
Multi below:
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Super Rugby
We say thankyou and goodbye to 9 sides and are left with the top 6, as it’s week one of the finals, 2 sides having the round off, and 2 sides facing elimination should they lose this weekend. The Bulls, having not lost since March and the Chiefs, last years premiers, will rest this week then host the winners of these 2 eliminators.
Before moving onto the big games, to me the best sides outside the top 6 were from South Africa, the Blues could consider themselves unlucky to miss, the Waratahs didn’t make enough of their chances, while the other 2 Australian sides have improved remarkably this season without quite getting the results. One thing I hope Super Rugby franchises look at is taking a game overseas like the match the Crusaders took to the UK, perhaps a one off game in Hong Kong for the Waratahs, as their major sponsor HSBC are based there?
Tips in Green, bets in Red, multi for this week works out to roughly $3.50
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Cooper versus Carter, who will win out?
Crusaders v Reds: They may have started the season a bit shakily but these Crusaders have charged into the finals. The Reds meanwhile snuck over the line against NSW last week, and very hard to gauge any form otherwise because of the Lions tour. You can rely on Genia to be at his best regardless, but Cooper may have an extra spring in his step, now knowing his current coach is also the national side’s coach. I’d really like to see my Reds get this win but feel that break has hurt the side’s momentum while the Saders have been going along swimmingly, tipping Crusaders to cover the early line of -9.5. (Note, should this move out to near 12 come gameday, will go the opposite and tip the Reds line, but can only go by what we have now)
Brumbies v Cheetahs: The Brumbies were awful last week against the Force, is it possible they have fluffed up at the wrong time of the season 2 years running? The Cheetahs have limped into the finals and admittedly have looked a bit down since the international break, but maybe it’s been a ploy, to come out firing come finals time? Can see ACT winning this, without much conviction but don’t be surprised is the Cheetahs get on a roll, where one try becomes 2,3 or 4 and put this game to bed. Tip is Cheetahs to cover the early line of +8.5
For what it’s worth, like the Bulls for the championship. Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus
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