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Can he do it again for the Cats in this week’s match of the round?
Another week and yet more denials from the Bombers on the whole Peptides issue. Now their CEO is claiming the drug in question isn’t a performance enhancer, technically he may be correct. But this drug, AOD-9604 is still banned. If not for performance enhancing capabilities, ALL of Essendon must answer the simple question: Why take the drug?? I’m all for waiting until the investigation comes out, infact the more I read from young journo @BenCuzzupe (worth following) the more to this story I feel is yet to be told. While my beleif is Essendon have done the majority of the dirty work here, the fact that so many of their public media presentations contradict each other leads me to believe they had no clue what was going on, and with Dr Dank, the central figure in all this not to be interviewed, I sense the resolution to this issue won’t be satisfactory. And by satisfactory, I mean whatever the final results, and if there is any punishment, it won’t be enough to prevent the next player or club to try something else to gain the extra edge.
The other story this week has been the Giants potentially trading away their number one draft pick come season’s end, so they can pick up some experience. Now one thing must be said here, they have huge talents at the club already, especially key forwards just entering their 20′s now, and with the likely number 1 Tom Boyd also a power forward it makes sense for GWS to test out the market. Personally don’t think as a group they’ll progress as fast as the Suns have this year, but they will one day soon be playing finals footy on a regular basis. So in an effort to gain some experience every man and his dog has thrown up potential trades and right now the Giants are in the powerful bargaining position, and could ask for whatever they please. If I was in charge, it’d need to be A-Grade, not a collection of past their prime guys.
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Next Number 1 draft pick? Tom Boyd in action for Vic Metro
Had to get that rant out of the way, not onto this round, and what a collection of cracking games we have in store. It’s brilliant for spectators, horrible for tipsters when really, there are only 2 games that I would put down as dead certainties. But then, I’ve been cocksure about games before, and failed dismally! Highlights are tonight for sure with the Blues and Pies clashing at the G, big ramifications from that match too if you look at where they are on the ladder. And match of the round has to be the Hawks and Cats, surely now Hawthorn can overcome the Kennett Curse?? Notable mention must go to the final match of the round under the Etihad roof, an excellent chance for Port to continue their hot streak and knock off the Bombers at home after as explained before, another long week in the spotlight!
We start off with the traditional rivals Collingwood and Carlton at the MCG. Hard to say who was worse off last round, Blues only really came to play for one quarter against Sydney and in a way, were lucky the rain made it so difficult to score, otherwise a blowout would have been on the cards. Collingwood had no rain to deal with, just an avalanche of pressure from the Power and a lot of their best players went completely missing. Hard to think this side was talked as a premiership fancy, feel there are more issues at hand than just poor efforts and injuries, don’t be surprised if a big name or 2 decides to leave the club while Buckley is in charge. Going by the ladder, this game really is one of those cliché 8 point matches. Pies in 8th currently, if they win that will take them 3 games ahead and pretty much say goodnight to anyone else below them on making the finals. Carlton, currently 9th, if they win, brings that gap down to just one win, and suddenly a group of maybe 4 or 5 teams start vying for the last 2 spots in the top 8, crucial win here is an understatement! When they played earlier in the season Carlton had their chances but eventually went down by 17, this week, I’m going Carlton just, their recent form may say L L L but they’ve faced much tougher opposition than the Pies, Carrazzo and Murphy big ins for the Blues.
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Will Judd and his Blues run away with the win Friday night?
Saturday we head to StarTrack Oval in Canberra for the Prime Minister’s cup, although it’s kinda lost it’s touch with that name. For starters, its GWS v Western Bulldogs, and the Dogs were Julia Gillard’s team, and now Kevin Rudd’s back in office, shouldn’t his be played against Brisbane? Tackling the big issues here! But now we have 16th v 18th, not likely to entice many viewers but here’s a tip for punters: I like the Giants here! If they are going to win anywhere it’s Canberra, cold blustery conditions and where they picked up their first ever 4points, this week facing a horribly out of form Bulldogs. Forget last week when they went on a final quarter rampage to get within 3 points at the end, that was as poor a display of footy as you’ll see. To be comprehensively outplayed by the Dees for 3qtrs says something, GWS meanwhile also copped it sweet from an attacking North Melbourne side, but looking at team changes they’ve got their best available on the park this week. It’d be an upset, and it’d take their absolute very best efforts despite the circus act that is their coaching department. The young men in orange need to be bold and take on their opponent, not flood 11 players back to prevent goals, they need to make goals for themselves. Need a good start here!
Next from Etihad is the Kangaroos against the Tigers, despite their ladder positions this could end up being a highscoring close match. Although I feel they are out of contention already to make finals, North need to win these types of games if they are any chance to make it, and for Richmond they won’t be taken seriously unless they can knock off the teams below them. Last 3 times these sides have faced each other the average margin has been less than a goal, so they match up well! One concern for Richmond is their toughness, mentally and physically, it’s well documented how they can struggle late in games when the game is there to be won, but they also rank last for tackles made and generally they play much better on the attack than defending. Same can be said for the Kangas too, who have managed to find every single way to lose games this year. Lindsay Thomas out hurts North who would’ve liked the extra option up forward, pressure will be on Petrie now, and one ex Roo in Aaron Edwards who may not be talked about much at Tigerland has been a decent addition to their side. Just takes one of the big defenders and opens space up for Riewoldt and the small guys, playing his role in the team well. Tipping the Tigers, will be close but just stronger up forward and in the midfield, a tight win here should do wonders for their psyche.
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Expect a tight tussle in the Q-Clash
Now up to sunny Queensland for the latest installment of the Q-Clash, played this time at the Gabba. And, perhaps for the first time, there is GENUINE interest here in Brisbane, which honestly only happens when the Lions play the big Victorian teams or play finals. This can be put down solely to the successful year comparatively of the Suns, who although only winning the first game between the sides were desperately unlucky to not win the past 2. That and they have pushed the best sides this season, and the form of their young guns is tremendous. Prestia, O’Meara, Bennel when fit, not to mention the old guys like Ablett and Brown both in fantastic touch. They let themselves down last week though at home, and theyd be keen to bounce back with a win. Brisbane have been up and down, and last week was a down. Losing to the Hawks by plenty, but in reality the margin should have been 5 goals more, the Hawks took their foot off the pedal and cruised, letting the Lions kick back in the final term. Brisbane have this issue, they can’t seem to back up after a win, and if they get blown away in the first qtr, just about bet your house they won’t come back, not to mention the leagues 3rd worst defence! I like the Suns a lot, they need to work on keeping up their 100% effort for entire games though, a sneaky chance to win here one feels, Black out due to a groin helps Gold Coast too, tipping them by a slim margin.
Now onto the game of the round, perhaps the season, 1 v 2 Geelong v Hawthorn. The only thing footy fan’s aren’t excited about with this game is the commentary from Brian Taylor. Seriously, the most annoying commentator, recommend strongly to get the radio out and listen to the ABC or anyone elses coverage! But onto the main event, the best teams the best players the best stadium what more could one ask for? Well if you’re a Hawks fan, a win over nemesis the Cats would be bliss! The Kennett Curse has been alive and well, Cats winning every match between the sides in seemingly forever, but feel this is the time for Hawthorn now. On a 12 game winning streak and feel it will be lucky 13 and would just about cement themselves as minor premier. Cyril Rioli a more than handy inclusion, but must be said these teams have both made a fair few changes since their last meeting earlier in the season, which by the way the Cats had a brilliant comeback win. Can they do it again though? Well their form was shakey up until last week where they blitzed the Dockers at home, proving 2 things: Freo are close but not quite premiership material yet, and the Cats can flick the switch and go BANG better than any other team. Preview last week mentioned that, could be just a 10min burst to break a game open and they never look back. So hard to tip against Geelong but Hawthorn have got to overcome this curse eventually, tipping it will be Saturday in yet another tight game. Watch for Buddy v Hawkins, 2 best forwards in the game!
In what is perhaps just as important but less of an attraction, the 2nd Saturday night game from Football Park between the Crows and Eagles could make or break their club’s season. Winner here stays within a sniff of the top 8, where they were both expected to make with ease; loss here is Goodnight Irene! Although, a loss for West Coast could have heavier costs, with John Worsfold out of contract as coach and perhaps, out of a job sooner than that. It’s a fact that premiership captains coaching their own club are the hardest to move on, my gut feeling is Woosha will coach till season’s end regardless and the club will find a more dignified way to move him on, after all he has won them a premiership as coach too! It’s not that they’ve played poorly, Priddis particularly has been a standout, but they simply haven’t been good enough for long enough, last week was the perfect example where they got overrun by the Bombers. Fitness and effort, 2 relatively dim boring words thrown around but such vital parts of successful sides that can give that bit extra. Adelaide had a win on the road at Metricon but they weren’t at their very best, couple of handy calls went their way and stopped all the Suns momentum, plus a strong final term was enough to get over the line. Dangerfield as always the man to watch here but young gun Crouch who won the Rising star nomination this week was impressive. Thankfully Jacobs is coming back into some better form as he’ll need to be at his best to defeat Cox and NicNat this week! Tipping Adelaide at home for this game, the recent record between the sides shows Adelaide wins at home, West Coast win at home, so going to follow that trend!
Sunday’s games now, this season generally speaking have been less enticing and nothing changes here, infact we head back to the MCG for what should be a certain win for the Swans as they travel to face the Demons. Melbourne miraculously held on last week for well, not a famous win but something to give their supporters a reason to gloat about. Finally, Jack Watts stood up and played well with 4 goals but it was his last minute mark in defence that took courage and prevented an unthinkable loss. Around the ground there were a couple of other highlights but generally speaking they appear to be wanting to play now. Is that simply down to Neeld gone, or is that purely a Neil Craig thing? Remember the first season under Craig the Crows were fantastic and smiling, never seen a smile from a Dees player under Neeld! But their chances here are slim, the reigning premier going from strength to strength it would seem and despite their under-par record at the MCG, Sydney should comfortably run over the Dees. Only worry long term is the fitness of Goodes, but even without him, 10goal margin here should be expected.
The next game from Patterson’s in Perth I originally thought well, Freo were very poor last week, maybe the Saints could get within a couple of goals to try and shove it up their ex coach. But then the teamsheets came out, and my goodness this will be a 10goal win to Fremantle! All the stars are back now and just about a full strength Dockers side, on the rebound, keen to exact revenge on their next opponent, up against a Saints side minus Riewodlt, their only real forward option that has been performing weekly this year. Amazingly when Ross Lyon faced St Kilda last year his side won but before that, the Saints had won the last 8 between the sides, more remarkable is the Saints form in Perth, winning 5 of their last 6. But, that’s all in the past and I feel Fremantle should do this comfortably, limit the Saints for any chances at goal and put a win on the board. Personally hope Pavlich plays well and gets through the game injury free, one of the most likeable players in the game.
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Had to put this in, describes everyone’s reaction to the past fortnight!
Last match of the round is an enticing encounter between the Bombers and the Power, both coming off strong and perhaps unexpected wins. Essendon, as they have almost every round this year, come in with the dark cloud of drugs in sport over their head but they’ve played fantastically still, whether despite or because of the extra pressure who knows. A late charge got them over the line in Perth and the feeling here is 2nd half fitness could be the key. Port meanwhile have had an excellent past fortnight brushing aside Collingwood and Sydney in 2 of the club’s finest wins, pressure on the opposition when they have the ball has been immense. To any old SANFL fans or even those who remember the Power in their early 2000′s glory days this is how they played but better! Essendon may have won the past 3 between the sides but under Ken Hinkley this is a a very different team. They won their first 5 against lesser opponents, lost their next few but after the bye they have been back in the winners circle with syle, the young faces like Wingard are shining. Very hard to go past the Bombers at home though, feel it’ll be a slim margin, look out for Kommer for Essendon, underrated player, and the loss of Cassisi could hurt Port.
So tips for this round are: Carlton, GWS, Richmond, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney, Fremantle and Essendon. Below is the multi I’ll be running, liking GWS at the line, Fremantle to win convincingly, and Gold Coast to win by 15.5+thanks to Bookmaker.com.au. One other single bet I like the look of is the Wire-to-Wire in the Cats/Hawks game, any other result looks a good bet at $2.
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