Last week we came oh so close to another multi win in the NRL, this time it was 48/1 and came short by just 1 bloody point! Had the Broncos won, and without some dubious ref decisions they should have, would’ve been a very happy man. But thats how these things go, alot of the punting twitter-verse were either mighty upset about the Broncs or jubilant about Parramatta’s victory. Aswell as missing on that tip, was miles off on 2 other games, the Knights looking awful while Ferguson for the Raiders ran riot and potentially into form warranting a NSW jersey, and who would think the Storm after winning a gazillion straight games would suddenly lose 2 in a row to Canberra and Penrith! The Titans also snuck across the line to score themselves a 1 point victory, leaving us with a pretty poor 4/8 for the round.
Ahead of this week’s women in league round, there’s a couple of cracker games, first up Friday a QLD derby at Suncorp with the Broncos and Titans facing off again (twice in the first 10rounds, something not right with the draw?) and the round finishes with what should be a very tight encounter in Melbourne with the Storm facing Manly. Below the tips are in GREEN and our bets are in RED, opnly a small multi this week:
Broncos v Titans: With Hodges a concern over playing due to injured ribs, liking the Titans here, $2.30 H2H
Rabbitohs v Tigers: Rabbits should win this with ease, $1.08 reflects this, sit back and watch
Dragons v Eels: At home Parra have been about the mark most games, but away have been poor. Can’t trust them though, tipping Dragons but not betting this game.
Panthers v Warriors: Panthers would have a new lease on life after an upset against the Storm, confidence will be high. Warriors meanwhile should never had lost to the Bulldogs with the advantage they had for most of the game, but struggle to play the full 80. Panthers 1-12 here at $3.10
Cowboys v Roosters: Tough one, have liked alot of what the Chooks have done this season, whether they can do it away aswell is the question. Cowboys have been very patchy so tipping Roosters, H2H are $1.88, line is -1 so score yourself an extra 6c and go the $1.94
Sharks v Raiders: Leaning to the Sharks after how they dismantled the Tigers last week, but Canberra have won 4 of their last 5, and on a decent roll. Sit back and watch this one
Knights v Bulldogs: The fightback come from behind victory for the Dogs last round would do them the world of good, 3 on the trot now and playing considerably better than the start of the season, Knights at home have been good but unsure they’ll win this. Sit back and watch this
Storm v Sea Eagles: Melbourne have fallen away a bit, struggled against the Warriors, then 2 losses in a row. Manly meanwhile have been competitive but not good enough against Souths and the Roosters, and think they may just fall short again here, Storm H2H $1.50
This week’s multi only the 4 legs, roughly 20/1 thanks to Sportsbet.
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Onto Super Rugby now, last week we tipped 5/6 which was one of my better weeks of late! Although disappointingly only one of the 3 bets came thru, with the Kings not only covering the +8 line but winning the match (odds were around $3+ to win) and in the process became the most successful new team to enter the competition. The Sharks simply didnt turn up in the first half so the +7 bet that I was supremely confident of was gone very early, and the Cheetahs were upstaged in a high scoring thriller at home to the Canes. A quick glance at the table shows many surprises, firstly each conference standings then the full table below that.
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Not many would have picked at the start of the season the Blues and Cheetahs to be in the top 2 of their conferences, although the Australian conference was more predictable. Promising results from the Force and Rebels in the past month have shown they are improving and getting close, but either just falling short or drawing! The Kings do have by far and away the most leaky defence but for a team in it’s first season they have been great to watch. The great part about this season now is there are 11 sides potentially who could still make the playoffs, although the Sharks and Stormers will need to lift and win this weekend in Aus. Below are this weeks tips in GREEN and the bets in Red, one small multi this week too.
Hurricanes v Chiefs: The Chiefs only just got over the line against the Force, and have been a bit average the last couple of weeks compared to what they can and should be playing. One thing I will say is both sides are very capable of scoring big, so the total points line is 51.5 and will take overs at $1.91. (As of Thursday, neither Betfair, Sportsbet, Betstar, Sportingbet, LuxBet or Bookmaker offer this market, only found it on Bet365, so this week’s multi is with them)
Rebels v Stormers: The Stormers need this win most, but Melbourne have been in a good patch of form of late, despite only the 2 wins for the season they have been more than a handful. Tipping Stormers but going Rebels at +7 here.
Force v Sharks: Again, the South African side should win and needs the win more, but the Force at home have been more than competitive. The +2 line isn’t big enough to take on the Force here sit sit back and watch this one.
Crusaders v Blues: Match of the round, the big NZ derby. Stories coming out that captain Richie McCaw maybe coming back to rugby earlier than expected and could join the Saders later this season, won’t help them this week but. Hard to pick this one, Blues have been good but not as great as before their bye, Christchurch have just had the bye but won their past 3 before that. Could really go either way this one, leaning the Crusaders at home but not betting on this one.
Waratahs v Brumbies: While the NZ game maybe match of the round, this should be a beauty. Tahs have looked good of late, an incredible past fortnight for Folau particularly, and as one would expect NRL teams want his signature. More importantly though, this weekend the Wallabies squad will be chosen so players from both sides will be going hard at it to grab a spot. The table topping Brumbies are my tip, but the Bookies have this dead even $1.91 both teams.
Bulls v Highlanders: Simple this one, Highlanders won’t get close Bulls to cover the -15.5 line
Cheetahs v Reds: First game of the season for the Reds in the republic, and their tour last year was anything but successful. But last week it appeared they had started to click again, no longer happy to just limp over the line but smash a team with exciting attacking rugby. Which is what the Cheetahs have done all season, just not quite as successful. At home, can make a case for Cheetahs but Reds for mine by 1-12 at $2.75.
Kings this week have the bye, and below is the Super Rugby Multi for this week thanks to Bet365:
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Interesting to look at the future markets on Bet365, to win NZ conference Chiefs $1.75, Crusaders $2.75 Blues $5.50, Auckland tempting at those ods but with a tough last 3 games of the season including an RSA tour and then Chiefs in the last game, very doubtful. Crusaders could well be the value there providing they can pick up a couple of bonus point wins in the next 2 months. For the other conferences, doubt any of the South African sides can catch the Bulls now who are $1.40 and in the Australian group, it’s tight between the Brumbies $1.44 and the Reds $2.75, who I think are value even with a tour of the Republic now and then a 3week gap for the Lions tour.
Follow on twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for the weekend!
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