Fair to say it has been an interesting week yet again for the AFL world, today’s big news about the outcomes of the AFL’s illicit drugs policy the headline. Although the massive news of SpotFixing in the Indian Cricket will take the spotlight away from the issue at hand, the results of the previous 12months revealed today by the AFL make for sad reading. For starters, the number of individual tests performed on players is roughly 500 more than were done in 2011, and there have been 26 positive results found in the 2012 season, up from just 6 in 2011. The reality is only 1% of all tests come back positive so we are talking of a very small group of players here. But the system is broken and has been from the beginning. I have posted my views on this before in this blog and the link for my thoughts on the system in January is HERE.
This ontop of some very dubious umpiring decisions, alleged racism of a senior coach (dumbfounded anyone could be offended by what Kevin Sheedy said) and findings by the Match review panel have proven yet again, this may be the greatest game in Australia but it is far from perfect. Below is a link to a clip from FoxFooty’s #AFL360, personally feel there are way too many grey areas and inconsistencies in the rules so it’s impossible to have uniformity in decision making. Plus what I mentioned in last week’s preview about Jeff Gieschen and his umpiring and laws committee making the game’s rules harder than ever before to understand. Click HERE. All this drama and yet to mention the woeful state of Affairs for the Melbourne Demons, already blogged on their issues but for a true indication of how poorly things are, take it from this man @Demonblog on twitter. Depressed is an understatement of feelings amongst the Demon faithful.
Onto this week’s games now, again there are probably 4 games you can put down as sure things and the remaining 5 as possibly excellent games, now that teams are beginning to gel and play to their potential it really seperates the men from the boys. First up Friday night we have a match that could well be replayed in September….if the teams perform to their expectations that is. Neither side has been brilliant, the Kangas late fades have made them look shakey until smashing 9.5 in the final quarter against the Dogs last Saturday. This was thanks largely to the emergence of the most exciting fourth gamer in Majak Daw, living proof that wherever you come from and whatever body type you have, you can succeed in the AFL. Still worrying for North is their inefficiencies converting inside 50′s into goals but last week was an improvement against a weak side. The Eagles meanwhile will be happy to be back home after a solid if unspectacular away win at the Gabba, where they too seemed to have fixed their own woes in front of the sticks. Add 4 big ins to their side in Selwood, Kerr, Masten and Waters and suddenly they look a much better side. At home, where the Eagles won their last encounter by 96points in an elimination final in 2012 they should be too strong here for the Kangaroos, if their forward line can click, they will bring themselves in the top 8 sooner than later and could well stay there.
Saturday’s first game has the Lions traveling down to Melbourne to face the 6-1 Bombers. Simple preview for this game, too often this season Brisbane have not bothered to start playing for the first quarter and have tried to play catchup footy, never a good situation to win a match. While they showed a much improved performance at home, and had they held on for another 10minutes they should have won, their away form is poor. And while they went down last week to the best side in the comp, the Bombers are still flying high, and enough to get an easy win here. Ryder back is good news for Essendon, yet to have a peptide-related bombshell this week too so good signs for the Bombers, should win by plenty.
Same time down in Launceston the Hawks host the Giants, and put it this way, if a no-name attack from the Crows can thrash GWS by 120+points how much will the star-studded Hawthorn lineup kick? Shortest odds I’ve ever seen for a afl team, $1.01 to win by 39+ points, best you’ll get is $1.001 for a Hawthorn win. Says alot, best attacking team in the comp against a bunch of kids who are Really struggling. This will end up just being a training run, Hawks in a percentage-boosting win.
Saturday afternoon in the Gold Coast has a game which should prove interesting even if these teams aren’t the best going around, as the Suns host the Bulldogs. Guy McKenna would be mighty proud of his men so far this season, 3wins up now and notched up their first win at the hallowed MCG turf last Sunday. And what a win it was, yes the opposition was woeful but it was without doubt their best win in the clubs short history. The form of Gary Ablett is as always, scintillating, others like Bennell and Zac Smith are lifting plus Jared Brennan finally had a good game for the club last week, surely him and Rischitelli have to play well every week now to keep their spots on this side. The task now will be can they win 2 games in a row for the first time? The Bulldogs have teased it’s supporters in 2 of their last 3 games, staying all the way with the Cats and up until the last quarter had a real good chance against the Kangas, but the fact is they are still sitting on just the one win. Luckily there has been several other stories going around or the pressure would be well and truly on coach Brendan McCartney. When people talk of how much teams have dropped off, the Western Bulldogs drop has been sensational, 2009 one kick from a GF, 2010 also knocked out in a prelim, since then their win loss record is 15/51, not as poor as Port in that time but at least now they are good enough to give themselves a chance at finals if they’re lucky. If I want to be really brutal, the talent coming thru is ok, not excellent, but this may be more to do with none of them playing well at the same time. Some journos in Melbourne are even praising their efforts but honestly their efforts havent been good enough to keep with sides for 4 full quarters since their upset round 1 win. The Dogs would’ve pencilled this game in as a must win, as would the Suns as they both would beleive this was a very winnable game. Tipping the Suns at home, if it stays dry it could be a ripping game showing off all the young talent of the Gold Coast.
Saturday night footy at the MCG with the biggest most popular club in Australia Collingwood up against the best, the undefeated Cats. Geelong faced it’s supposedly toughest challenger last week in another then undefeated side the Bombers but they were just too good, showing all the class that has made them won more games than any other team since their 07 premiership. Are they in a class of their own? Maybe, if other teams didn’t have their own mental demons with the Cats (Hawthorn mainly, but not many sides win at Kardinia Park either!) but for now they are deservedly on top. They are number one in the comp for marks inside 50, an important stat that shows how good Hawkins is for this side, and how handy Taylor has been floating forward this season, any forward that can take a grab is like gold in the AFL. You just know with Geelong that Selwood and Bartel will have plenty of influence, Kelly’s suspension may have slightly distracted this team but they are the ultra professionals, can see them winning this one comfortably. Meanwhile the Pies have won the last 2 encounters against Geelong, but this season they have been posed many questions, and their answers haven’t always been there. For starters, injuries have taken their toll (surprisingly Cats have only one less on their injury list ) and other than Swan, good form from Reid and Cloke, hard to find a real standout. Swan will get his 30 touches a week, he does that almost out of habit now! But last week was typical of their season so far, brilliant in patches but not good enough in others. To be so far down against Freo at home was never a good sign, but then to get ahead in the final qtr and lose was worse. It might be a blockbuster and all, but think the hype might not match the ease of the Geelong victory here.
The second Saturday night match is between 2 sides sitting on 5-2 and have been quite good this season with the Swans hosting Fremantle at the SCG. As 2 of the more defensive teams around this could well be a dour matchup especially on the smaller ground with less gaps to run. Which is where I think Freo has one advantage as they will be going with a smaller speedier lineup, if they can start attacking and running through the lines and get into their forward half quickest they have every chance of snagging the 4 points here. The Dockers also have won 2 of the last 3 at the SCG, a good record considering how strong the Swans have been recently, not to mention the 3wins on the trot. Sydney last week weren’t the Swans everyone knows, they were outclassed by a rampaging Hawks who were hungrier for the ball. They normally are a good contested side but that fell away last week, so the question marks will be out this week on whether that was a once off or if its a trend. With big Shane Mumford in, thats a big bonus for the Swans as Fremantle come into this game without really a recognised ruck, and I feel that is the difference between the sides. Fyfe, Pearce, DeBoer, Mundy v McVeigh, Hannerbery, Jack, Bolton and Jetta will make this match a delight for midfield contests but just at home, with alot to prove and with a height advantage down forward and in the ruck, tipping Sydney here in a tight one.
Now onto the Sunday games, first up from Etihad where the Blues take on the Power. After a tight and perhaps unlucky loss to North, I thought at home there was a good chance Port could get back on a roll, and after their traditionally slow start was still confident they weren’t quite out of it yet. But not many teams come back from 7goals down at HT, so Port shot themselves in the foot thanks to not starting until 15mins into the match! Coach Hinkley will need to eradicate this from their game as it takes considerably more energy and effort to chase a score down than it is to post a big lead, although from where Port have come from it’s hard to be too critical just now. The forward line of Schulz, Westhoff and a couple of classy small men in Neade and Wingard could prove too dangerous for a notably poor backline of the Blues. Although at Etihad, Port have been woeful, losing it’s last 6 games there. Carlton meanwhile played at the ground Monday night and put out one of their least impressive efforts, yes they had injuries but that doesnt stop attitude. They turned it on in the final quarter but was too little too late. Betts and Yarran out will hurt them, even with Waite coming in. One man selected is Bootsma who I previewed to have a big season, so far he’s done bugger all so misread his game by a long way! 3 big milestones for Carlton this week, plus home advantage they could well get over the line, but after what they dished up Monday, quite keen on Port to cover the 17point line. Tipping Carlton, just!
Next up is another potentially one sided affair, with Richmond the next lucky customer in the percentage booster buffet that is the Melbourne Demons at present. Look, jokes aside, there hasn’t been many positives from the Dees but one small one to come into the side is James Magner who has been quite good for the reserves team, hopefully he can get a few grabs and goals this week, because lord knows Melbourne needs all the help they can get. Richmond meanwhile got a big confidence booster winning away from home last week, and should build on that here Sunday. It’s hard to judge the Tigers where they are at right now, on their day they are great like last week, but this week’s match will be hard to take much from if they do win by plenty. Jack Riewoldt to kick 8 plus.
Final match of the round is in Adelaide for the Crows and the Saints on Sunday Arvo. So, did anyone pick Tom Lynch, of all players, to kick just the 3rd bag of 10 goals for the Crows in their History?? If so, mind telling me who win’s this week’s Doomben Cup too? A performance that simply came from nowhere, the 100+ win against GWS wasn’t nearly as surprising as the game by young Lynch. Him and Jenkins up forward looked very good but again, the opposition allowed it so how do you judge? What we need to do for proper form is look back to the week before against a high quality Hawks side, who the Crows got within a sniff of. Dangerfield and Thompson, the 2 most valuable players to the team, were superb and both are in potential (long way out) Best and Fairest and Brownlow form. At home theres alot to like about the Crows this game, but hesitant to predict their future just yet. St Kilda meanwhile caused quite the upset Monday over Carlton, some weeks they just simply turn up and play great footy, Riewoldt in excellent touch plus a strong midfield helping him out. Although still going below expectations, the Saints would fancy themselves here after a confidence booster win last round and got within a kick in a thriller last year at AAMI. But very difficult to go past the Crows here, a good attack against a not as good defence, the attack wins for Adelaide.
So recapping tips this week, West Coast, Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast, Geelong, Sydney, Richmond, Carlton and Adelaide. Below is our Multi for this week thanks to Bookmaker, separate to that, have one other special. As Carlton and Port have both been slow starters in recent weeks, Bookmaker offers a Highest Scoring Half market, get on the 2nd half to score more at $1.80! Follow on twitter @mugpuntaus Best of luck for the weekend! Cheers
And if you haven’t already joined Bookmaker, be sure to take advantage of their great signup offer below, and check our Free bets page off the home screen, Cheers!
Filed under: AFL, Preview, Sport
