An INSANE try on Monday Night the highlight of Round 20
Another round of the NRL down and now only 6 rounds to go in the regular season things are tightening up. Another win for Manly last night saw them score 30+ for the 4th week in a row, saw them takeover the Storm and jump into 3rd place, 2.5wins behind Sydney and 3.5 behind the Rabbits. Chances of the top 2 staying as they are are high, but almost every spot in the 8 from now till round 26 is up for grabs.
The match of the round between the Warriors and Storm certainly exceeded all expectations, one of the best matches all year and an impressive win for the Kiwi club, boosting their chances of finals significantly as they currently sit just points-difference outside the 8. Although saying that, New Zealand may need a bit of luck to help them secure that finals spot, as almost all the teams above them had wins.
Down the other end of the table, the Eels are anchored down the bottom, while Wests, St George and North Queensland sit just above on 6wins for the season. The Dragons pushed Canberra at home, they weren’t disgraced but yet again that bloody hoodoo against the Raiders reigns strong and they lost by just 4 points. (Super pissed, thought the Dragons were a good thing to break the hoodoo too). Despite the miraculous acrobatics of David Nofaoluma on the wing to score the Tiger’s first try of the game, last night they still fell way short of where they would’ve liked to. Take out some small simple errors and you could drop the eventual 18point margin to 8 or 10. Benji Marshall, who I said would bounce back to his best form as he now knows his future, has well…how to say it politely, played crap! He’s giving all the indications that he can not wait for Mad Monday and to end his time at Wests, so many errors that aren’t normally associated with Benji. Doesn’t help when other than Farah, the other experienced players haven’t been great, Anasta cops flack for being overrated and hard to disagree sometimes.
The Cowboys have been a myth this season, an awesome list they were predicted by many to make top 4 maybe even win the comp. But, some poor displays at home, and worse away has left them unable to make finals and has cost coach Neil Henry his position. The rumors were flying around almost immediately about Kevin Walters heading there, although more recent suggestions are that it will be Paul Green (current Holden Cup coach for the Roosters). The Titans Tuesday brought in coach John Cartwright for a grilling, no doubt demanding better than what the side has thrown up in the last month. A big slide from 6th on the table to 11th, can’t all be put down to injuries and Origin, genuinely feel recruiting older guys has prevented the full development of some of our juniors. As for the Broncos well, Anthony Griffin in my view is lucky that he is a likeable character, compared to predecessor Ivan Henjak. He is also lucky they played the Cowboys Friday night, other sides would have been able to bring Justin Hodges down before the line in what ended up being a match-winning try. Similar success on the field yet Henjak was torn to shreds in the media, Griffin hasn’t been copping anywhere near the same vitriol. It’s unlikely but entirely possible that Kevin Walters, the number 2 man down at the ultra successful Storm, who is looking to coach, could choose between any of the 3 QLD sides.
Other results for the round, the Sharks after a tough week on the field including a 40-0 thrashing to the Roosters, and ongoing dramas with their ASADA investigation, had a very convincing win over Penrith who are just sliding off a bit. (Good news for the Sharks is skipper Paul Gallen is back this round) The Panthers had a good mid-season run notching up a few wins but the last fortnight has seen them lose by 28 and 18point margins. They may be the side to drop out of the 8 to make way for the Warriors. It was also hard not to be impressed with the Roosters and Bulldogs, both pulling off big wins with performances that could be improved. A good position for any club, when you win by 28 and can still get better! Also, an easy victory for the premiership favorites Souths keeps them a game clear up top of the table. As for our tips last round, got 5/8 (missed on the Broncos, Sharks, & Dragons) and our bets well, the multi went down in the first leg. The total match points score went way over the 42.5 line, then the Panthers lost by too much to cover that line, then a 77th minute try to the Warriors took the margin beyond the 6.5 for the tri-bet. Only leg that won was easily done so by Adam Reynolds scoring more points than Adrian Sezer, who didn’t trouble the scorers at all.
Onto the next round, tips below in Green, Bets in Red:
Knights v Broncos: They may have lost Sunday but the performance from Newcastle was still ok, take out the last 15mins or so when the Roosters eventually ran over the top and that game was evenly poised. At home, liking their chances against the Broncos who I can’t be confident with. Their very best would win this game but they haven’t been at that level for a while, leaning towards the Knights no bet.
Panthers v Roosters: As mentioned before, Penrith are slipping away a bit, and after 2 decent sized losses you can add a 3rd here to Sydney. While I doubt it will be a cricket score, the Chooks should overrun them in the 2nd half. Sydney to win and our bet here focuses on that 2nd half, going Roosters at the -6.5 Line here at $1.90 (points in second half only)
Warriors v Sharks: A lot to like about the Warriors at home, unpredictable flashy game style that scores heavily and leaks just as easily, exciting to watch. Liking them at home, unsure how the addition of Gallen to the Sharks effects their gameplan as it worked quite well Saturday against the Panthers! Will tip the Warriors here, and throw in Shaun Johnson to score more points than Todd Carney at $1.40 as a bet.
Eels v Sea Eagles: Simple game to pick here, Manly have been in decent shape winning their last 4, Parra losing their last 9. Manly should win comfortably, not too much value in this when the line is a big 18.5, Sea Eagles should cover but little bit loathe to bet on lines that big.
Cowboys v Rabbitohs: The Cowboys at home have been close but not quite in some of their bigger games this season, last Friday night for example plus earlier on against the Roosters. This Souths team though keeps on rolling along, the loss to the Dragons a week back may have been the kick up the backside they needed to get the focus back. Souths to win here, even away from home see them as a good thing, the Rabbits line at -8.5 at $1.90 is the bet for this one.
Raiders v Storm: Possibly the toughest game of the round to pick, straight up not putting a bet on this! The storm haven’t been great, Origin takes it’s toll but even last round they just didn’t have enough in them to get past the Warriors. Although, thats not to say it was a bad game from them, just beaten by the better side. Canberra notched up a tight win over St George and at home are a different team. Remember last time these sides met in Melbourne? The line then was something staggering like -12 or -16 for the Storm, not so this time just -4 showing just how tight this is. Match of the round, leaning to the Raiders at home, but no bets.
Titans v Tigers: After the month they’ve had, I’m still amazed the Titans come into this game as faves. Wests have much to improve on thats a given, but don’t know how they’ll go on the road here. Definitely a no bet game with 2 sides in poor form, leaning to Wests though. First halves in their last 2 games have been decent. Can’t say any half from any of the last few games have been decent from the Titans 
Dragons v Bulldogs: Monday Night football, it didn’t prove an upset as the Sea Eagles cruised against Wests, but the week previous it was the Dragons who brewed up the biggest upset in a long time! an they pull one out of the hat this round? Keeping to my rule of no more Monday Night bets, but tough to go past the Dogs, in some good form now should get the points here.
Note: For Sportsbet punters, their August promo is if a winger scores the first try, any first tryscorer bets will be refunded upto $100. Another Note: After this season will be looking to linkup more closely with another bookmaker as many have had issues with Sportsbet this year, but until then will still be using them for the weekly tips & multis. This week’s multi below:
Super Rugby Final
In what was a massive upset, the Brumbies in the last play of the game snatched the win away from the Bulls at home, something that simply does not happen, and has taken everyone by surprise. Many times during the season, the quality of Australian rugby has been in question, and rightly so watching some of the rubbish served up. But We have an Aussie team in the final, so what does that tell us? Firstly, says I know bugger all about the sport, thought the Bulls were good things for the title but have choked their chance this season.
Can the Chiefs win it again in 2013?
So the ACT come into this final on the back of traveling to the Republic and back and then onto Hamilton to face the Chiefs, a hard task in anyone’s books! The Chiefs meanwhile hung on for dear life to win by the smallest of margins against the rampaging Crusaders. Down at HT, a strong second half was the story behind the home side’s win, that and plenty of cowbell. Looking ahead, the Chiefs have been the strongest side thru the season of the 2, but Jake White has his men playing at their best at the right time of the season. The odds say Chiefs $1.35, Brumbies $3+, line is around 8. I’d be happy to take the Brumbies at that line now, perhaps wait until the day and see if that get’s pushed out to 10 and throw it in your multis, but much more confident in the Chiefs at 1-12 $2.50 Best of luck to the Brumbies, but Chiefs are who I’m tipping!
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