Don’t think they’ll be so chummy this weekend!
Another week and more news develops in the Essendon drugs saga. When will this ever end I can hear you say? Hopefully before the finals is all I’ll say. The previous round had some very unfashionable ugly footy, the scorelines of some games were downright awful, and I like many footy fans just can’t wait for finals. September is when the best teams, the best players, and the most memorable games are played, and as much as I like a quality high-scoring game of footy, it’s better when it’s both teams scoring!
It’s easier to accept when it’s Geelong smashing the life out of the Demons the other week, or the weekly handouts that GWS seem to cop. But when it’s 1 v 2 on the table, you don’t expect a 9goal thumping! Hawthorn are a fantastic side, very few if any weaknesses showing up, and they toyed with the Bombers during the 2nd half last Friday. It was a tough loss to take for Essendon and it’s been like a snowball effect since, the whole week has been one to forget for Bomber fans. THIS today is the most intriguing piece of news, especially as all along, James Hird and all those at Essendon have said they want the truth to be heard. Well, hiring a QC to prevent the details ever coming out isn’t exactly letting the truth be known.
I’m just like any footy fan, passionate about my team but realistic about their chances, if anything more pessimistic about my Crows than others with their side. You need to stick by your club thru every situation, but you need to see the whole picture from both sides. Over in Bomberland, with almost every player tweeting Wednesday night during the interview with Dean Robinson #standbyHird. Understandable, they’re backing up their coach. But with updates on the saga continuing almost daily now, there’s less to be confident about with Essendon. One interesting thing to note, is David Zaharakis has come out via his manager that he wasn’t involved in the program as he was too afraid of needles. Dave, I know EXACTLY what you mean!!!
Just a little sting? I call Bullshit!!
Moving off the Bombers and it’s saying something about the Saints, when they’ve only made the news really twice this season, both for stories that were unwanted. The First was earlier in the season with details of Stephen Milne being charged for rape. This week it was for Ahmed Saad, another goalsneak small forward known for his very upright kicking stance. To quote the AFL.com website:
AHMED Saad has been named as the player at the centre of a banned substances investigation by the AFL. The 23-year-old was formally named by St Kilda on Wednesday afternoon. The Saints named him as the “player under review by the AFL for an alleged breach of the AFL Anti-Doping Code” for taking a substance permitted for use “out of competition”. It is believed Saad returned a positive ‘A’ sample and the results of the ‘B’ sample are yet to be determined.
At worst, the potential ban could be for 2 years. Having talked to my partner who is a surgeon, and showed him a link to the alleged energy drink Saad had taken. As far as he could tell, it looked no different to any of the other available energy drink powders on the market as far as what ingredients were inside. But, if it’s a banned product then it should be the responsibility of the player to know, or at least find out.
Looking back at last weekend, it was one of our more successful rounds tipping 8/9, missing out on the Gold Coast at home, who I must say were below average. Perhaps it’s expecting too much from this young group to stand up and perform at their best week in week out, and the heavy loss to Carlton ends any slim hope of finals. For what it’s worth, below is the table right now, and as it stands, my opinion is the top 8 will be the same teams but just slightly up or down a positions or two.
Onto this week’s games, and there’s certainly a couple of grudge matches this round, starting Friday night under the roof at Etihad between North Melbourne and Geelong. Rather Cheekily, the Cat’s twitter handle has tried to stir up the North supporters about the roof. For those that can remember when the sides played earlier in the season, Kangas coach Brad Scott had an issue with the roof open while it was raining. In the end it was a tight come from behind win for Geelong and since then, on many occasions, the mental fragility of North has come under the spotlight. Not so last round as they smashed Melbourne to bits, but that’s hardly worthy form coming up against the Cats who had their own 101 point win. Something worth noting about the Cats is their discipline is failing them a touch, Steve Johnson one week, Podsiadly the next, they need to be careful now leading into the important end of the season. The big out for this game has to be Swallow, the Kangas skipper, especially as their opponent can bring in one of the best in the league in Bartel. The strength of North has been their starts so they’d need to get off to a flyer if they look to give themselves any chances of winning, but feel Geelong overall shouldn’t lose this. Having won 8 of the past 9 between the sides, you can expect a high scoring game, but the Cats just need a 10min burst to blast thru and win this by 3-4 goals, and put the nail in the coffin to a disappointing 2013 from North.
Saturday’s match of the day comes from Skoda Stadium in the Sydney Showgrounds complex with the Giants hosting the Dees. I feel saying the location of the ground is a must this week as I doubt many will show up, and for anyone that does, they’ll likely get lost! Have yet to attend the venue to see for myself, but have read and talked to others who have. Common thinking is lovely boutique ground, great big screen, but just not as easy to find as every other AFL ground. Over time, once the side has been there for a while and matures, it will become less of an issue. GWS were impressive, if only for 3 qtrs last week in their loss to Collingwood. Like i mentioned right at the top, come to expect these sorts of results now so when its a loss within around 7 goals it’s like a pass mark. Thanks largely to the mercurial Jeremy Cameron, who booted a bag of 7, the men in Orange put up one of their best games to date against a finals hardened side. Many positives can be made about the Giants but their big issue is lack of tank, they can’t run a game out, But then, compared to Melbourne who can’t start a game out letalone put in 4qtrs of effort, that may not be such an issue for GWS! To score just 4 goals 4 is bad against any side, but at Etihad in controlled conditions there’s no excuses for giving your side a chance at scoring more. Last round was one the Demons need to forget about quickly. And they would be wise to look back at the final qtr when these teams last played, had it not been for a 12 goal final quarter they could well be anchored down the bottom of the table. Their ladder positions are reflected in some offensive and defensive stats. The Giants are 18th for total points scored against this season and 17th for points scored. Conversely, Melbourne is 17th for points scored against and last in total points scored. Those stats alone prove this won’t be a pretty game to watch, but leaning towards Cameron kicking a bag without a name defender to hold him back, and lead the Giants to victory for the first time this season.
Next up from the MCG is an almighty test for Richmond, facing up to Hawthorn, who are in fine form. Putting it simply, Richmond only have 2 wins against top 8 sides this year, and weren’t quite schooled last round against Sydney but still defeated by a much stronger side. They’re good but not good enough against the best sides and feel this will be exemplified Saturday. Interesting to note the last time these sides played in round 9 last season, the Tigers romped it in by a massive 10goals! Can they do that again? Unlikely, especially against the best attack in the comp and with Buddy & Roughy in top nick kicking 12 between them last week. I truly feel this is a crunch game for the Tiges, an honorable loss will be just acceptable, getting within 4 goals. But anything less and it’s hard not to feel like 2013 they’ll be making up the numbers come finals. Burgoyne comes back in for the Hawks, and Guerra celebrates his 250th game, and this one has everything pointing towards a Hawks win.
Over to Perth for the next matchup, and it’s the West Coast Eagles hosting the Suns. As disappointed in the Gold Coast as I was last round, West Coast were worse. Although a couple of decent ins can help the Eagles here, with skipper Glass returning to shore up the defence. The forward line has been the issue for them though, inaccuracies plus not enough opportunities at goal have hurt them, would hate to see the figures for how many times they burn the ball going inside 50. Prestia back for the suns is a big plus for them, one of the bright stars of their future, throw in Martin and O’meara to that bunch! Bock has been named an emergency but whether they risk playing him with not much to gain in the end of this season who knows. Think about this for a second, right now this game is a reasonably tough one to pick, yet just last season West Coast carved the Suns up by 126points! And both sides have lost 5 of their past 6, so it’s unlikely to be the cleanest crisp game of footy ever seen! But the game will be won in the midfield, the best ruckman in the league v the 2nd worst going by the stats, it’s just a matter for the Eagles to tap it down to their own men, and away from Gazza Ablett. Leaning to West Coast at home, but definitely not a big betting game here!
Just an awesome pic that needed to go in somewhere!
Saturday night see’s a must win game for both sides for differing reasons, when Carlton host Fremantle at Etihad. A win for the Blues keeps them very much in contention for the finals, and who knows could leapfrog Port. Win for the Dockers makes finals a certainty for starters, and helps them get closer to the top 4 spot. Amazingly Carlton head into this as favorites but I’m unsure why, as like Richmond, they haven’t got a great record against top sides, no wins against any of the top 7 this season. The previous 5 games between the clubs have been by margins no more than 25points so expect much of the same, although probably a defensively strong Freo is a given and they have won their past 4 at Etihad. Another note of interest is how Freo won last week…basically the Crows should have won looking at every stat, especially defensively as Freo only got inside 50 33 times. The Blues had a strong second half to overcome the Suns last round, but this is such a harder task for them and I don’t think they’ll have enough avenues at goal to kick a winning score. With rumors that Eddie Betts is asking for $600k a year, which to me is craaaaaaaaaaaaaaazy overs, he better give something to show he’s worth that sort of money! Very tight game this, maybe not pleasing to the eye but the toughest match of the round for sure, leaning just to Fremantle, watch for the game of Fyfe too from Freo, unbelievable for a 21yr old.
Saturday night finishes up with 2 sides that can’t play finals and must start preparing for 2014, as the Lions host the Saints at the Gabba. Brisbane had a damn good fightback after their early season shambles, but they had their chances against Port last round and let that slip. Voss would have to be reasonably safe now but I’m sure the Lions must be thinking we can’t keep on this track of mediocrity like they have for the previous few seasons. Talking of mediocrity, Saints wouldn’t mind being at that level right now! A 100 point thumping and a player under investigation does not make for a good preparation! Expect both Brown to play well and dominate as neither side has a brilliant defence, but there really isnt that much to get excited about in this match, no Riewoldt for Saints leaves them very little hope of a win here unfortunately. Brisbane by as many as they want.
First up Sunday at Etihad again, where all the important games are this week, has the Winning Western Bulldogs host Sydney. Winning yes, thats right, the dogs have looked promising of late, all way too late in the season for it to have any effect on results but still, looking good for 2014. But this Sydney side looked strong last week, looks good on paper, and should win by as many as they really want! Longmire is a premiership coach but still a vastly underrated coach too, having still been able to blood into the side some very good young players. Is it me, or when the young guns start at a winning club, they generally are more successful than those starting off in bottom sides? Anyways, no way Sydney will lose this one.
Balfours Showdown: Any excuse for a footy pie!
Onto the Showdown, the big grudge match, as who wants to leave Football Park with the last win over their fiercest rival? Port, much to many peoples surprise, are the side battling for a top 8 spot not the Crows this season, and doing it by backing in it’s young guns. Ken Hinkley has been doing a great job backing experienced guys like Westhoff and Boak to have great years and it’s rubbed off onto the rest of the side. While they may not win every game, this one I see as theirs for the taking. The Crows were doing everything right but couldn’t kick a winning score, story of the Crows since 1991 to be truthful! Just about every occasion the Crows have lost since they started in the comp has been due to wasted opportunities and inaccurate kicking. Hardly a big statement really, but it works for both sides, 15th and 16th for goal-kicking accuracy! 2 of Adelaide’s best are out in Sloane and Dangerfield, but one could argue their last 2 matches have been good performances winning against Geelong and winning almost every stat against Freo bar the scoreboard. So who will win this game? Last time they met it looked all but over as Adelaide ran out to a 31point lead….only for an incredible fightback from Port to snatch the game late by 12points. Again I’m going to tip against my own side, and it hurts, but in a very tight game I feel Port have more to play for, they need to secure their finals position and will win by under 3 goals.
Final game of the round and what a grudge match this will be, Essendon v Collingwood at the MCG! It would’ve been a cracker before the events of this week, both sides looking for finals positions in either the top 4 or looking for a home eliminator. But, after James Hird thru Dean Robinson and Stephen Dank decided to drag the Pies into their saga, you can just imagine how the players in the black & white feel about this. Expect a feisty encounter for sure! Collingwood though did just enough to push away the Giants in the end last week, not super convincing but a win nonetheless. Their form has been patchy at best, and while they’re playing a higher scoring brand of footy, the Maggies are also conceading more, completely different to how the Malthouse system played. If the Pies can’t lift for this game though, they’ll never lift, and will be making up the numbers in finals. Looking at the teams, hard to say who exactly will play but for the Pies, Ball & Lynch have been selected, and Watson, Fletcher & Gumbleton for the Bombers, some pretty handy ins right there! The Bombers were blown away last week, and had that not been the case they’d be the faves here. But Essendon, with all their dramas, could it all becoming too much for them? The pressure has been immense, the stress huge, eventually it will catch up to them. But saying that, I don’t see it being this week, take out their last game and Bombers have good winning form, tipping them to win by 3goals plus.
So tips for this round are: Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Brisbane, Sydney, Port, Essendon. Below is my multi for the round, going a big one with a leg in each match thanks to Sportsbet! Only going small here for the multi, but if you want a ‘sure thing’ single bet for the round, for the opening game of the round and load up on Geelong to cover the First qtr line at -4.5 for 2.10.
So in our multi, we have Cats to win by 15.5+, Hawks to win by 15.5+, Cameron to score the most goals in the GWS v Melb game, Freo to win 1-39, Brisbane first team to 25points, Sydney to win by 25points or more, either side to win under 15.5points in the Showdown, and Essendon to cover their +3.5 line. All up, should get odds of roughly 170/1, worth a 5-er I reckon, or go at them as single bets.
Make sure to Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for the weekend.
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Filed under: AFL, Preview
