AFL Round 20 Preview

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.Jeremy Cameron: Fired up after GWS’s first win for the season

What a crazy round we just had, possibly the Best Showdown finish ever played out in Adelaide, the Bulldogs almost out-Sydneyed Sydney, and both the top teams on the table suffered losses, while the Bombers were awful against the Pies. Throw in GWS first victory for the season and Richmond securing their spot in the finals for the first time in over a decade, plus some controversy with Ahmed Saad playing for the Saints, this round had it all! For what it’s worth, these were the ‘Plays of the Day’ below:

Although Gia’s goal was brilliant and flukey, the last 5 minutes from the Power was a glimpse into the future of what should be a strong club going forward. The last 6 players to touch the ball in the phase of play which led to Wingard sealing the game, were all top round draft picks. Every week the kids from Alberton are growing into men, and shouldn’t be disregarded come finals time. Nor should Fremantle who dismantled Carlton at Etihad, who have a much easier draw going into finals than other sides. Expect them in the next fortnight in their games against GWS and Melbourne to push for percentage boosting wins to secure a top 4 berth, while rotating their best players in and out of the side, alot like Geelong have done in their premiership years.

I’ll put it out there now, can’t see any team out of the top 4 winning the premiership this year, hardly a big call that seeing it’s only happened once before. But with the Hawks and Cats showing their vulnerabilities on the weekend to lesser sides, it does make the finals race very tight. Sydney are going to go deep into September, they have the perfect squad there and all they need is to be playing at their best and they should get to the Grand Final. John Longmire, forever it seems, is the underrated man in AFL circles, but thats exactly where he would want to be right now, under the radar happy for other teams take the spotlight, for good or bad reasons.

Talking of bad, Melbourne Football Club. It’s now obvious a different coach hasn’t done the job, although thats harsh on Neil Craig who is just a fill in. The Dees have changed all the key positions at the club now, and are looking for a new coach and president. But, the gut feeling is it won’t make a difference, and the light at the end of the tunnel is a fair way off yet. How this squad can put in such poor efforts is beyond me, and I feel that’s where the club needs to start looking closely at. The club isn’t going to attract the big names, so it has to make it’s own, which isn’t easy but considerably more rewarding long term. No more recruiting bit parts players like Sellar & Rodan that wouldn’t make it at any other club (Sellar struggled for a game in the SANFL reserves at Glenelg). No more paying overs for guys like Dawes and Clark, both potentially could be good players but the Dees have them on contracts too long and too expensive. Practice the basics, follow the lead of Port and now the Bulldogs: develop an attitude where defensive pressure is an absolute must, make it as hard as possible for the opposition. It’s not a quick fix solution, infact for a team that is rebuilding a rebuild there is likely much bigger problems. But having a crack on the field should be non-negotiable, if Port can turn things around, if Richmond can play finals, it can happen to anyone.

Reviewing last week’s tips and bets, managed 6/9 which is roughly my average for the season so far. Missed out on Friday night with North providing an upset to keep their ultra slim finals chances alive. Also lightning struck twice and Richmond dominated the Hawks, exactly the same as last season but completely unexpected mind you. Alot of people thought yeah might be tight, but not a Richmond 41point win! And not many expected the Bombers to capitulate so badly. But after reading some of the breaking news this week, it’s going to get much worse for Bombers fans: this headline is emphatic and telling.

As far as bets well, the big 9 leg multi was a silly idea and won’t be doing that again, out after one leg Friday night. The single bet that I said was a sure thing, was also a failure, as North came out and played the best they have all season. If you were to take those 9 legs as individual bets, you would have some winnings; under 15.5 points result Tribet in the Showdown won, Sydney winning margin won, Lions were first to 25points, Freo 1-39 just snuck in, Gold Coast got within 3 goals comfortably within the PYOL of 30.5points tipped, and Jeremy Cameron scored the equal most goals of 4 with Callum Ward in GWS win but Cameron with 4goals 1behind took that bet out. I can’t claim that as a winning round as I suggested the multi but had you taken $10 on each bet as a single, losses totaled $40, winnings totaled $113.20 if betting with Sportsbet. Take that however way you like it, will be aiming for a different angle with my multi’s this round.

Onto Round 20, which looks potentially a one sided round, only one game where the favorite hasn’t opened up at under $1.42. Not to say there won’t be much reason to watch, as there are other elements at play here. Teams needing big percentage boosting wins, others needing results to fall their way, fight for top 8 spots, and teams not involved with finals need to give their fans something to think about over the next off-season as 2013 comes to a wrap.

First game Friday night pits the Saints against the Hawks, as just mentioned the Hawks need to hang on to their top spot, while St Kilda need to show something for their fans in what has been an awful season from them. Can’t believe I thought the Saints were a chance at finals at the beginning of the season, proves making a prediction in January means zero! The best players at the club are past their best footy, and the young kids coming thru are much like the young kids at other cellar dweller clubs, taking their time to develop and a season or 2 off the pace just now. Doesn’t help when the club traded away their statistically best player from 2012, and continues to play 2 men who could be in very big trouble, one with the law and one with AFL. (Both within their rights to play, but paints a very bad image on the club and the game) Positives? Aren’t many right now but at least the future stars are getting games under their belt, and other than a couple of games they haven’t been blown out of the park. Do they have a chance against the premiership favorites? No, simple answer there! Beside the fact the Hawks are on the rebound and are often at their most dangerous, the game will be won by a superior forward line against a bottom 4 side defense. Percentage isn’t an issue for the Hawks so expect a solid win, and perhaps don’t be surprised when the team sheets are released that a couple of players are resting.

Saturday’s matches begin at the MCG as the finals-bound Tigers host Brisbane in a game the home side should win, all depends on how comfortably. The Lions had a solid victory Saturday night at home, but were against a Saints side as explained above, impossible to compare them to the opposition they face this week. The big loss, not just for their team but all of the footy-world is the injury to Jonathon Brown, who has torn his plantar facia in his left foot. What is that I hear you ask? Had no idea, but this article here should help explain things. If there is one player who you would pick to come back from a nasty injury like this, it’d be Brown, who remember last year crashed his bicycle into a car: Brown walked away with bruises, the car got towed! What does this mean for Saturday’s matchup? Ofcourse, their major forward target is down, and the replacement won’t be half as good, but it could work well for the Lions off the field. Giving someone who they don’t particularly need some game-time, eg these last few rounds, can boost their value as trade-bait. As mentioned on this blog earlier this year, I’m of the belief that Brisbane more than most teams need to trade aggressively and obtain a young key forward. Tom Boyd can’t help any side this weekend though, and the way Richmond disposed of the Hawks last weekend suggests the Lions will have a tough day out. Despite a relatively strong run of form, it’d be very difficult to believe the Lions are a chance here, but as with many teams that are no chance of finals, experience is everything. The best players from Richmond have been just about the best in the league, Cotchin, Martin and a perhaps underrated Tuck and Maric all starring. The only query, and it’s a big one for the Tiges, is have they got the mental strength to stay up the next few rounds before finals? The fact they have finally cemented a top 8 spot is commendable, but now they are in, there is a chance the team will drop off the pressure. Especially with a very high chance of their first final being home at the MCG, do they have enough to play for these final rounds? Percentage always helps, as does winning form; Tigers having won the past 4 encounters between the sides and their past 7 from 9 games this season. Expecting Richmond to do this easily, blowing away the Lions in the second half, restricting the Lions to a low score.

Also on Saturday is at Kardinia Park as the Cats host the Power, who are also finals bound but not locked in just yet. Alot of credit must go to how Ken Hinkley has turned this team around from last season, but little has been said of the previous coach, Matthew Primus. As is always the case with sacked coaches, they are judged purely on results and that is fair enough, but the young players Primus drafted in are the guns that brought undone the Crows Sunday, case in point Chad Wingard. Will it be enough to turn around a streak of losses to the Cats which dates back to the 2007 GF loss? I doubt it, the bookmakers are giving this a 5goal line which is about fair. A huge Home ground advantage to the Cats helps, but they have to start playing the ball not the man, the fine line between supreme confidence and plain arrogance is shining thru in some of the senior Geelong players. Hawkins has been a touch out of sorts in recent weeks, he’ll need to lift in time for finals, and talking of players lifting, Chapman returned via the reserves last week. He is one player who would very easily walk back into this side and make an impact, a handy fresh player to have in September. Expecting Geelong to win this not easily but comfortably enough.

Next up Saturday afternoon is the Blues facing the Dogs at Etihad. Carlton need to win this and most likely keep on winning to have any chance at Finals this year, they are in a situation where it’s completely in their own hands now. Although if last round was anything to go by, they’ll be making up the numbers as Freo exposed many frailties in the final quarter. Particularly up forward, Henderson is the standout, but then where is the support! Judd, for what it’s worth, is now just serviceable not explosive. Couldn’t believe my eyes the other day when I read Eddie Betts wants $600k a year, if that’s what Betts is worth, then well…Franklin is worth $6mil! Perhaps this is playing on his mind? The fact that Malthouse coming into the coaching role and most likely won’t finish with the same amount of wins as Ratten last year is telling, the logic here would say 1 step back 2 steps forward. Carlton don’t have a bad side, although Mick might be thinking, time to trade out the dead wood. During his time at the Pies, they were always a defence first unattractive team to watch at times. But the record speaks for itself, he’s left them with a strong side, potentially making their 8th finals series in a row. Give the man some time, and some freedom to make his own list and Carlton could be equally as successful, but I doubt it will happen this season. The Bulldogs meanwhile are in a reasonable patch of form, a win at home against West Coast plus admirable losses to Hawthorn and Sydney with a hard-nosed tackle franzy approach has won them plaudits across the league. The fact remains is they have a very much developing list, and Brendan McCartney isn’t under anywhere near the scrutiny he probably should be with such a low winning record. It’s a results-based comp, and eventually a side needs to turn those good efforts into wins, and I think this weekend they have a strong chance. The form of their young Father-son recruits has been brilliant, but does this rule favor some teams more than others? As a Crows fan I certainly feel it’s a good rule that captures the romantic side of football, but my club has made no gains from it. It’s certainly favoring the Dogs with Liberatore and Wallis in fine form. Here’s one opinion piece on the Father-son rule, and a List of all father-son picks. Tempted to tip the Dogs this round, nothing to lose whereas the pressure is all on Carlton, tight tight game but Bulldogs just.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.Match of the round: Sydney v Collingwood

Off to the Olympic Stadium for what is Match of the Round as Sydney host Collingwood, in what should be a blockbuster! Amazingly this is down to the Pies, 2 weeks ago they lost to the Suns and played average against a good GWS side. Yet a big win against the odds over Essendon has put them right back in the hunt, simply a matter of can they continue this form? The last time these 2 sides met, Collingwood were the raging favourites and Sydney had yet to really kick into gear for season 2013, then Bang out comes their best win of the season! A game marred in controversy with a member of the crowd racially taunting Adam Goodes made the match infamous, but what shouldn’t be forgotten is the brilliant game Adam played, and Collingwood fans will be grateful for his absence! The game before that, in last year’s semi final the Swans won at the same venue, and at ANZ Sydney have won 6 of the past 8, and are on a 6 game winning streak that has averaged a winning margin of almost 50points! Before last year’s semi final though, Colingwood had an outstanding record at ANZ winning 7 of the past 8! On that form, it’s possible to take the Pies with a head start, but I just don’t know if their form will stand up. I mean a 79 point win against any side letalone one shooting for the top 4 is very good, but look a bit deeper. Essendon could well be capitulating under the weight of the ongoing ASADA investigations. GWS hadn’t won all season and pushed the Pies all the way until midway thru the final qtr. Gold Coast are improving but not a finals side and beat them. They defeated a mentally fragile Carlton and a Crows side having a poor 2013, and before that an unexpected loss to Port. Nothing there is overly convincing enough for me to put my hard earned on them, but the form of Ball, Swan and Sidebottom, plus goals to Cloke up forward gives enough hope for the traveling side. Tippet v Cloke at opposite ends will be worth seeing, also worth catching some of Hannebery, a future Brownlow medalist I feel. Sydney at home by a slim margin, not expecting a blowout here, a proper hard test for Collingwood to see exactly where they stand come finals.

Also Saturday night, in a considerably less exciting encounter at Carrara the Suns host the Demons, in what should be an easy win for the home side. When they last played at the MCG, it was the young Gold Coast side’s first win at the venue and it was very convincing, seeing as they play better at home, this could be a 10goal margin. Melbourne well…what can you say, they were plain poor against a GWS side without a win all year. Says a lot that, and it says more that I struggle to find a positive for them, other than it’s nearly the end of a horror 2013. DemonBlog was very depressing this round too! The honeymoon period with Craig in charge didn’t last long, whoever ends up coaching this side in 2014 and beyond can’t do it for money, it must be for the love of the game. Which leaves very few of the best possible candidates, still feel my rough pick of Gary Ayres isn’t the worst. For the Suns, they put in a very good effort over in the West against the Eagles, the 3 goal margin was close but doesn’t show that for most of the game it was end to end exciting footy. A return for Bock also helps strengthen their side, with perhaps a more permanent move forward, even though he was an All Australian defender, as it would certainly stretch the Dees defense this round. Honestly can’t see this being much of a contest so I’ll throw out these 2 interesting points. Melbourne hasn’t won in the Gold Coast since 1990, Gary Ablett, playing his 250th game this week is the $1.50 favorite for the Brownlow, and the AFL player Ratings are a joke when 4 Melbourne players can jump in the rankings on the back of a 6goal loss. Gold Coast by plenty, Ablett with 40touches.

Onto Sunday’s matches now, and we start with an interesting one, Bombers against the Eagles at Etihad. Now in normal circumstances I’d say the Eagles haven’t got much chance but after developments this week, and on the back of a thrashing who knows what Essendon will show up. Certainly not a game for putting a bet on, but can guarantee the Bomber’s faithful will be more welcoming to Jobe Watson than Eagles fans were 6 weeks ago, after Watson had admitted to taking a banned substance. West Coast were good enough in the end to overcome an exciting Suns side at home, It’s been a poor year for West Coast when so much was expected of them, only 8 wins for the season. Their average winning margin is just under 40points. Take away the blowouts that are expected against Melbourne, GWS and earlier in the season when they were woeful the Bulldogs, and the ave winning margin drops to just 10points, hardly convincing and certainly not worthy of the premiership contenders tag they had pre-season. Enough has been said about the crisis Essendon seem to be in on a weekly basis but only now is it effecting their on-field performance. It would be harsh but fair to say they didn’t want to play Sunday, but with old man Dustin Fletcher looking to equal a club record for games played for the club they should lift. The rumor of Hird walking out/forced out of the club by Thursday hasn’t eventuated (yet) which would have completely ruined my tip, but leaning to the Bombers at home, any other side and I’d go them but Eagles, away, in their form, and at a stadium they have lost 9 of 11 against Essendon, it’s a no. Bombers by less than 5 goals.

Next game we travel to Football Park for the Crows v Kangaroos clash. This is possibly the tightest game of the round to pick, which formline do you follow? The Crows who did everything but win against Port, were inaccurate against Freo, and defeated Geelong? Or the Kangas who played very well to overcome the Cats, smashed the Dees like everyone else has, but lost 2 nailbiters previously? Neither side has played to their full potential this season, physically Adelaide aren’t the same as they were in 2012 plus the salary cap breaches could well have played on their minds. Mentally, North Melbourne’s performances are enough for a psychologist to write an entire thesis! Exhibit A would be the miraculous comeback from Adelaide earlier in the season to snatch the most improbable win of the club’s history! At home the Crows have a big advantage winning the past 5 between the sides, but of late it’s been North who have won 3 of the last 4 games at any venue. Crouch, Johnston and young sub Grigg were very good for Adelaide last weekend but I feel the Crows may have missed a trick here. Can’t fault Johnston’s efforts but for a long time since his debut I’ve always believed Ben Rutten should play forward, regardless that he, like ex team mate Bock for the Suns has also been an All-Australian full-back. Particularly now, with many key forwards down thru injury or form, and with the season over its time to experiment! Personally have always thought defenders are dime a dozen, goalkicking forwards are gold in AFL, which is why Carey was paid more than Jackovich back in the 90′s! Alas, it’s unlikely that will happen! Prediction for this game? North to go hard early and Adelaide to fight back in the second half to win at home. Kangas at the death have lost 5 games by under a goal, and 3 by under 3 goals, all the Crows need to do is get close!

Final game of the round comes from Perth, as Fremantle host the Giants who are finally off the mark. But isn’t this a massive difference from the comforts of Skoda Stadium! Simply, Fremantle will win this by as many as it wants, and thats where the intrigue lies. Do they go for a belting, risk having a couple of goals kicked down their end for the sake of a possible percentage booster? Or do they play it safe, rest some stars, and treat it as nothing more than going thru the motions? I can’t see GWS getting close either way, but would like to see Jeremy Cameron kick another bag and win this year’s Coleman. Freo should just keep on winning and aim for the double chance, their draw is favorable and with skipper Pavlich due back, it’s certainly not unrealistic.

So tips for this round are: Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong, Bulldogs, Sydney, Gold Coast, Essendon, Adelaide, Fremantle. Below is my small multi for the week, will post a second small goalscorers multi once teams are settled on Twitter.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for this weekend!

And if you haven’t already joined Bookmaker, be sure to take advantage of their great signup offer below, and check our Free bets page off the home screen, should get similar odds for the same multi as above, Cheers!

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.