From the extremes of a cold chilly Waikato, to the dry hot as hell Perth, and the beautiful beaches of Cape Town, and everywhere in between, welcome back to the best Rugby comp in the world, Super Rugby for 2014. With some luck we’ll get what all rugby fans want really, crunching tackles, attacking play and miraculous tries! Some players will be looking to consolidate their form ahead of the World Cup next season, while there’s also a handful of guys with points to prove.
So let’s start with those in the land of Oz, starting with possibly Australia’s best player before succumbing to injury, David Pocock. After playing several seasons standing out for the Force and starring as the Wallabie’s number 7, 2013 was to be his first in the Australian capital, but after 3 games it ended in tears as he injured his ACL. For the Brumbies, they brought in old timer George Smith from Japan who was immediately back to his very best, but the ACT would love to get a full season out of Pocock, and go one better in 2014 & win the comp! Others to watch from Canberra include Jesse Mogg, probably the fastest man in their squad and one to consider for Anytime Tryscorer bets, and Christian Lealiifano who’s an excellent place kick. Big concern for the Brumbies is whether Jake White leaving at the end of last season (without giving much notice) will have much of an effect, but I do feel with Laurie Fisher director of coaching and Stephen Larkham as head coach they’re pretty good replacements! My contender for top in the Aus conference, will be interesting to see how captain Ben Mowen performs, having already made his intention to quit rugby at seasons end, just 8months after debuting for the Wallabies. A curious case, but best of luck to him, important for these pro athletes to know there is more to life than sport, especially once your career is over.
As for other sides in the Australian conference, it will be interesting to watch how the Waratahs backs perform together. Is there 2 more polar opposites off the field that are both electric with ball in hand as Folau & Beale? While the expectation would be Beale to go into the halves & Izzy to stay at fullback, both are try-creators, with their own personal motivations. Folau has developed into a fantastic player in just one full season in union, can he beat those 2nd year blues? I’m almost certain he can, one of the best in Aus under the high ball. Kurtley meanwhile must be the luckiest man in rugby, consistently misbehaving off the field, perhaps he just doesn’t know any better? Perhaps rugby isn’t that important to him? Who knows, he can only answer those critics with a strong season for the Tahs, and for everyone’s sake I hope he limits his boozing. Player to watch for this season besides the big 2 is Michael Hooper who was super impressive in the Green & Gold winning the John Eales medal, not to mention his club form winning the player’s player award at the Tahs plus the Aus conference SuperRugby player of the season. A must for any SuperBru fantasy footy nuts!
Queensland also has had a change of coaching structure, while Richard Graham left the Force in 2012 for the Reds last season, it was very much Ewen McKenzie’s side still, so it will be interesting to see what he can bring for this side having full control. All the big stars are still there, Cooper is preparing the same as he did in 2013 with a boxing match where he will no doubt beat the daylights out of some poor chump! Decent new recruit in Lachie Turner from the Waratahs, after not getting many opportunities in NSW recently again due to injuries. (So many in Aus are injury prone!!) Losing Digby Ioane isn’t ideal but then in some respects, the last season or 2 have been a bonus for the Reds having his services as he was always going to try his hand overseas. Expect the Reds to be strong as they have been the past few seasons, think it will be a battle between them & the Brumbies for top spot in Australia. One to watch, and personally haven’t seen him in the flesh but have read some very positive things about, is Jamie-Jerry Tuilagi almost fresh out of high school rugby across the ditch in Auckland. Compared to Digby Ioane with a lot of pace and strength, expect him to be more a development player this year from the bench, and aim for more gametime as the season goes on. Big challenge for the Reds will be starting the season strongly, with only 1 home game in the first 6 rounds, it’s vital they win away, and they just need to improve on their awful record in the Republic. Last 2 seasons they’ve been walloped in South Africa, so hopefully with one game against the Sharks (probable loss) and one v the Lions (probable win) they can try to rectify this.
Now onto the 2 minnows of Aus rugby, the Rebels and Force, both who have shown promise and improvement in recent seasons but lacking the week in week out consistency of other sides.You’ll notice I have a bit more to say about these sides than others, feel this is an area Australian Rugby must develop, as well as the upcoming Australian Rugby championship to begin at Super Rugby season’s end. Recruiting ex-league players and naturalizing players from overseas isn’t exactly a sustainable way for the Wallabies and the Australian conference to survive and succeed, need to develop home grown talent.
The Rebels start this season with a fresh approach, new head coach in Tony McGahan who had some success over in Europe with Irish side Munster as their director of Rugby, a handy pickup for the club. And, they in my opinion made the right move in letting go James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale. While they may both go on to bigger and better things and Beale may even hurt them on the park when the Waratahs play Melbourne thru the season, they were liabilities fracturing the side off the field. No matter how many trys, how many fans, or how much coin a player is on, they just have to play by the rules and behave themselves, no brainer in offloading them both. Interesting to read skipper (and star player) Scott Higginbotham try to compare the Rebels now to what the Cheetahs were a season back, promising and building but ultimately without playing finals. Well, the men in orange played in their first playoffs last season, who knows it’s entirely possible for Melbourne to acheive it too, but realistically I don’t see it happening.
Something the Rebels can improve, 5 games last season they lost by within a converted try, and they played exceptionally well to get so close especially away to the Crusaders & Blues but one game for mine sticks out, and it was at home hosting the Kings. After going behind early in the game, they went ahead late and should have held on, only to give away converted try very late to level the scores and a fantastic drop goal from Catrakilis to win it for the Kings, the ultimate win from nowhere. If the Rebels are serious about playing finals, and improving as a Super Rugby side they need to win those sorts of games, earn respect not just in Melbourne during their AFL mad winter, but across the competition too. Couple of players to watch for the Rebels, Sean McMahon, who turned down the chance to play for the Australian 7′s side and the almost certainty of playing in the Rio Olympics to persue his Super Rugby career, and the return of Luke Burgess to Super Rugby. No relation to the Burgi (what’s the word for a group of Burgess’s?) of Souths in the NRL, a former Wallaby with plenty of Experience for the Tahs and Toulouse in the Heineken Cup, something a lot of the young Rebels don’t have just yet.
Finally the Force, coached by Michael Foley in his 2nd season at the helm, are in a similar boat to the Rebels. Snagging some big wins in 2013, including a memorable performance defeating the Reds at Suncorp, drawing with them at home and then holding onto dear life to win at home against the Crusaders. In their newly revamped nib Stadium, the Sea of Blue has been brilliant, a great sign for rugby out west to not only have big but knowledgeable crowds attending, proving that rugby has got a place away from the traditional eastern states. Unfortunately for the Force, on the field they are still lagging behind, the highlights have been fantastic but few & far between, none of their 4 wins in 2013 were by more than a converted try and they had the worst attack in the comp as far as points scored. their game style isn’t like some sides where you’d expect high scoring free flowing rugby, they do after all have quite a large South African contingent in their squad, 8 in total! While a team like the Brumbies has doubled their international test caps this season, the Force is rather listless in comparison, but expect Nick Cummins to have a strong 2014. Another one to watch, if nothing else for the novelty factor of watching a Tasmanian playing elite rugby, is Adam Coleman at lock, standing at 202cm and 122kgs you can’t miss the lad, but with just the one cap to his name in Super Rugby expect him to play off the bench at best.
With the season starting in less than 3 weeks, I’ve made a couple of bold/crazy predictions for the Australian conference and put my money where my mouth is. Below are the future bets I’ll be having a crack at, if anyone remembers my staking from last season across all sports I used $10 bets as a guide, all about gambling sensibly. Odds via sportsbet:
To win Aus Conference: $2.50 Brumbies / My tip to take out the Australian conference but if you want something safer, $1.45 to make the playoffs.
To Miss the playoffs: $2.40 Waratahs / Seeing as only the top 2 sides realistically can make the finals in Super Rugby from each conference, just feel the Tahs aren’t going to be good enough to make it. Promis much but often don’t quite deliver, they failed to make the finals the past 2 seasons aswell.
Top pointscorer: $21 Christian Lealiifano / A roughie, but a good one I like. Had an exceptional year with the boot in 2013 finishing 2nd to Morne Steyn on the overall points list on 233. Should be taking the place kicks 90% of the time for the Brumbies, so can build up a decent tally providing he stays injury free and the Brumbies give him enough chances to score. Much better value than other Aussies in this market eg Cooper at $7 and Beale at $15; despite their try-scoring ability, both have others in the side that are better place kicks and may not always get every opportunity.
This season I’ll be blogging here weekly with my tips & bets thru the Super Rugby season, as well as other footy codes, so either follow me here on this site, on Twitter at @mugpuntsg or via Spultured.com and SportsBanter.com.au where I’ll be doing weekly line picks for each game so be sure to follow them on twitter too @spultured & @sports_banter Bring on 2014!
Filed under: Preview, Rugby
