Now that I have your attention….welcome to my South African conference preview, where unfortunately that’s the only pic of an attractive cheerleader you’ll find here. Not that there aren’t any more great pics of the stunning Bulls cheerleaders if you want to google hard enough! For some time the South African provinces have been strong but besides the Bulls, unable to bring home any silverware. But with some key appointments and returns at some clubs, plus the gradual improvement of others, there’s a chance the championship will go to the Republic this season.
For those that don’t know, or are unsure how it works, each of the 3 conferences in Super Rugby supply 5 teams to the competition, in Australia and New Zealand the same 5 teams play each season and there’s a possibility that in the future an Asian or Argentinian based side will join. South Africa are slightly different, with 5 out of a possible 6 franchises in the comp, but for the team that finishes last in that conference they play in an EPL style relegation playoff with the 6th franchise. So what that meant was the Southern Kings, who finished dead last despite having a better than expected season, and better than the team they replaced in 2012 the Lions, had to face off against the same Lions outfit to hold their spot for the 2014 Super Rugby season. Unfortunately for them, the Kings lost on points differential by the barest of margins, just 2 points, and gave entry for the Lions, based in Johannesburg to play in the 2014 season.
Happier times for the Kings
Personally, I’d like to see a second tier comp for sides like the Kings to ply their trade against international opposition. For example, an all pacific Island team, an all Asian team (which would mainly consist of Japanese), an Argentinian side, and then the best of the rest from NZ, Aus and RSA. Make it a short sharp season so as to not interrupt the 3rd tier competitions already in place (ITM Cup in NZ, Currie Cup in RSA, and the newly formed Aus Rugby Championship), and make the winner of that smaller competition play in a relegation playoff against the side finishing last in the Super Rugby season. It would be something to keep the current 15sides on their toes about, making sure they don’t finish last, but it’d be a very unlikely possibility something like this would take off. An article for another time perhaps!
Happy Lions, something that might be rare in 2014
Let’s have a look at the franchises now, and we’ll start with the new guys for 2014, the Lions. Based in Jo-Burg and playing out of the daunting stadium that is Ellis Park. It isn’t quite as scarey now with the new naming rights sponsor, CocaCola Park doesn’t quite have the same ring to it, and doesn’t remind Wallabies fans of the losses we’ve had there over the years (only one win there EVER!). But visiting sides shouldn’t need to be afraid, as the Lions they haven’t made the finals, and under their previous name the Cats they played 2 finals for 2 losses in 2000/01 seasons. When looking back at the history of Super Rugby, they hold many unwanted records including: Most points against in a season, least points for, worst points differential, fewest competition points in the Super 14 era, fewest tries in a season, equal most defeats in a season, finished bottom of the table in 3 of their last 5 seasons in Super Rugby, and largest points conceded at a home game. So to be polite, there is room for improvement.
Their squad is young, and they start the season with a injury list they’d rather not have. One would assume their season goal realistically would be 2/3wins overall, anything else would be a bonus, but when their head coach Johan Ackermann says 18-20 players in his squad could have no Super Rugby experience, that’s a big ask!Whilst some sides like the Sharks can replace one Springbok with another off the bench easy as, the Lions have just the 2 players with international caps in Franco van der Merwe and Elton Jantjies. Franco is one to watch this year after being called up to play for the Boks late last year via injuries, another one you’ll hear the name of alot is Jaco Kriel but if I’m brutally honest, expectations are very low for the Lions. For those who like to punt, avoid for the first round betting anything involved with their opening match against the Cheetahs, save your hard earned for other matches! The one thing the Lions do have in their favor is a handy fixture. No trips out of RSA until round 12, so if they are going to make an impression on this comp, besides the very cool red jerseys, they need to make it fast and early.
Bustling Bismarck
Now onto the other end of the scale as far as experience goes, the Sharks! Disappointment last season missing out on the playoffs and ranked 4th in the South African conference, they should be the most improved side in 2014. 5 straight losses in the middle of the season hurt them badly last year, including 2 losses to the Bulls by 2 & 1 point so for a better 2014 season it will only need a slight change of results. The big story with the men from Durban is their new coach Jake White, who left the Brumbies in hectic circumstances at the end of 2013. The official reasoning was he wanted to be back home with his family in South Africa, which is fair enough for a guy who has worked almost exclusively overseas recently. But there was rumors he was deeply upset about not being awarded the Wallabies job when it eventually went to Ewen McKenzie, either way, Brumbies and Australian Rugby’s loss is a huge gain for the Sharks. With some luck on the injury front, and some better mental displays, the Sharks can make the playoffs with the sqaud they have, which includes 14 capped Springboks and captain Bismark duPlessis should be able to put in a full season this year too. Following the normal RSA formula of strong defence with an excellent place kicker, expect the Sharks to initially follow that stereotype with tight lowscoring games. But if White can tinker the methods slightly like he did with the Brumbies, over the season expect some big victories and lots of scoring opportunities made from Lambie and JP Peterson down the wing.
BEAST! Had to get this cracking picture in!
One to watch, infact one of my favorites in the comp, is the Zimbabwe born Tendai Mtawarira, or more commonly known by his much easier to pronounce nickname, the Beast. Incredibly strong, often seen bursting thru tackles carrying 2 or more big forwards on his shoulders, an amazing athlete!
Looking menacingly at the camera, the Stormers will want a lift on their 2013 performances
The Stormers were also disappointing in the same way as the Sharks, missing out on the finals despite a barnstorming 5game winning streak finish to the season. But it was the round before that streak where they lost to the Rebels at home, that showed they just weren’t good enough in 2013. The rise of the Cheetahs didn’t help the Cape Town side’s chances of playoffs, but nontheless they had the best defence in the competition matched with the 12th best attack which isn’t good enough to win finals. Whats worse is losing one of their best attacking weapons in Bryan Habana to Toulon, the acquisition of Catrakilis from the Kings isn’t a bad one but have to wonder where the tries will come from, maybe franchise and Springbok skipper Jean DeVilliers? (Admittedly he had a cracking Rugby Championship for RSA) Not even Habana or anyone else from the Stormers managed to make the top 16 try-scorers of 2013, and their top point scorer last season Joe Pieterson is also off to France for 2014.
The 3 previous seasons the Stormers made the finals, so the real question is, was 2013 a blip in the radar & should we give more credit to the Cheetahs who finished ahead of them? (More on the Cheetahs later) I’m inclined to believe the Stormers are nearly there, brilliant defence is always a good start but they need to show more flair, and can improve their away record. It will make for a new look Stormers, in some positions anyway, the big gain really is going to be a hopefully fit and firing Schalk Burger who has had a shocker run of injuries recently. But one to watch and it’s an interesting pickup is Manuel Carriza from Argentina, an indication that the South American game is growing stronger when their best are recruited to play in the best rugby comp in the world. In their favor is a handy fixture where the last 10 games are played in RSA, and only travel for 4 away games all season, finals will be a must for this side in 2014.
Can we bring back the Pink instead?
Now to the Bulls from Pretoria, the only franchise from the African continent to win the Super Rugby title, and they’ve done it 3 times if you don’t mind! Last year they were the form team of the tournament, I boldly said they would win the title many points during the season including during their 9 game winning streak, but just like the cricket side from the same nation, they faltered at the end. I’m sure they’d like to blame their awful/stunning pink away jerseys (beauty in the eye of the beholder there) but the reality is, the final round of the regular season they got shaken up bad by the Stormers in a 17point loss. This should’ve rung the alarm bells that their minds weren’t focused, and I’m sure they would’ve much preferred to play a qualifying final straight after to get that shabby result out of the system. As it was, they qualified on top of the RSA conference and 2nd overall, giving themselves a week off and home semi final against the Brumbies. As good as the side from the ACT were last year, it was still a big upset and I’m sure that left a few scars. If that doesn’t leave a bitter taste in the offseason for the Bulls, losing their most influential player Morne Steyn to Stade Francais certainly does. Can’t blame the guy really, he’s done it all in Super Rugby: won championships, topped the point scorer charts, and he’s not alone as 5 others have left the club for French rugby, one for Japan, one for Leinster in Ireland, and 2 have left for Aus franchises.
Victor Matfield
A mass exodus of epic proportions, so what does the club decide to do? Bring back a legend of the Bulls and Springboks, at the age of 36 Victor Matfield. That, and recruited from their feeder side in the Currie Cup the Blue Bulls, a real test of the youngster’s abilities and character this season while showing exactly what the feeder comp is for. Also keep an eye on the improving JJ Englebrecht, and hopefully by the end of the season we will all know the spelling of these names and autocorrect won’t stuff it up! There’s enough quality in this team to suggest they’ll still do ok this season, but I’m banking they don’t make another streak of 9 wins on the trot, again like the other big sides in RSA they travel little so it’s imperative to win at home. I’m tipping a bit of a slide for the Bulls this season, but they’ll still be strong at home against the Aussie sides: always challenging to play against blokes speaking Afrikaans, its a difficult language to listen to!
The Huddle…closest they’ll get to eachother all game!
And finally the Cheetahs, the most improved and impressive side in 2013 who surprised everyone with their first ever finals berth. If there has ever been such a non-stereotypical South African rugby side, it has been the Cheetahs. All out attack, worry about tackling later, so much flair and dare with the way they play, I for one count them as my second team when the Reds aren’t playing. Where to start? The coach is Naka Drotske who is an ex front rower and still has the typical barrel chested build, think Ewen McKenzie like. And similar to Mckenzie during his time at the reds, theres an abundance of talent, with most of the key guys staying on from their 2013 campaign. The men in orange don’t have many Springbok reps, more an indication of the type of rugby played at international level than franchise rugby, but one guy who typifies what they are about is Willie LeRoux. Equal topped the tryscorers list for the RSA conference, lightning quick and not afraid to throw the ball around, loves an offload & he’s the leader of a bunch of backs that are stacked with pace including Raymond Rhule, Johann Sadie and a world class number 10 when injury free, Johan Goosen. Guess this has always been the story with the Bloemfontein sides, had the ability to produce the miracle play and breed rugby stars like no tomorrow, but rarely have they matched great attack with great defence. Suddenly it was like over the course of the 2012/2013 off season they learnt to tackle, no surprise they went from the 14th ranked defence and became the 6th best defence, with an 80point turn around to the positive on points differential.
Not ashamed to say I Love Willie….
I could wax lyrical and go further about how exciting the Cheetahs are to watch, but lets get a couple of things clear: they are still a work in progress and I wouldn’t pick them to win the championship this year. A 10-6 record was just enough to get them into the finals last season but some of their losses could’ve been reversed. 2 losses at the start of the year wasn’t ideal, giving other sides an opportunity like that again and they make take full advantage of it this season. But they’ve been dealt a favorable fixture where they can just about pencil in 2 wins bookending the season against the Lions. Like that old cliche, the hunter has become the hunted, last season was out of the blue. This season sides will focus much more on their gameplan, and while I fancy the Cheetahs to back it up and make the finals again, it will be tougher.
So overall, predictions are theres not much splitting the top 4 RSA sides, a very tough conference each side with it’s positive and minuses. The Lions straight away look out of depth but who knows they may surprise, seen stranger things in this competition. I have a couple of bets below using Sportsbet’s odds again, there may be better books out there for rugby but each to their own.
To make the Playoffs: Cheetahs $4 / Like I said, they made it last year, this year will be tougher, with a similar squad coming back in 2014 don’t see many reasons to discount them.
To miss the Playoffs: Bulls $1.57 / Odds a bit short for this one right now, perhaps wait until 2/3 rounds in and see where they are at, but of the top 4 I think the Bulls have the biggest slide down this season.
Top Tryscorer: Willie LeRoux $21 / Roughie, and ideally I’d like a market for top RSA tryscorer as I feel LeRoux would be a great bet for that. Worth a small bet anyway providing he stays injury free.
Final bet is more for long term with a view to back now and lay closer to the finals on Betfair, backing the Sharks to go all the way in 2014 at $8.60 now. Plan would be wait until the last couple of rounds when with some luck, they are down to half that price, and lay the bet. What that means for non-users of Betfair is basically, you’ve traded to give yourself a free crack at the Sharks to win the comp. Great in theory anyway!
Next preview will be for the NZ Conference, and for anyone that followed my little multi overnight in the 6nations, congrats on picking up a $3.50 winner! Follow on twitter @mugpuntsg as well as @spultured and @sports_banter
Filed under: Preview, Rugby
