Could this be a common site this Saturday at Football Park?
The AFL heads into the middle of the season now with 3 split rounds where each team gets a bye. An innovative idea to give every side a break, or the AFL scared to lose any momentum by having every side have the same week off so stretching out the bye, either way it’s apparently what the players crave. Understandable, every working person deserves a break at somepoint during the year, myself included as this will be the only preview you’ll see on this blog for the next fortnight while I’m overseas. Would love to say I’m heading over to some sporting mecca or a massive event like the Ashes at Lords…but unfortunately it’s a trip with my not so sport-loving partner.
Last round I opened up with a big picture of the Purple Haze at work, why I didn’t choose to go with the Dockers to win I can only say is because of my Crows bias. Nonetheless, both sides were impressive in defense in a very low scoring game, the 8point margin not reflective of how comfortable Fremantle looks with their Ross Lyon gameplan. At this point in the season, they haven’t done anything to say they won’t be a chance later in the season, although one question for Freo fans, are they a better side without Pavlich and Sandilands? Adelaide meanwhile have a negative home record of 2-4, same as the West Coast, possible that 2 sides that had such high hopes for 2013 could both deservedly miss the finals? Time will tell, but home losses regardless of the opposition hurt most.
For Round 10, we picked 6/9 with both South Australian sides letting us down, and the Tigers playing out of their skins against a hapless Eagles side in Perth. Played on a Monday public holiday in Perth (only knew of that when it was mentioned in the telecast!) it seemed West Coast were mentally in long weekend mode. Gold Coast meanwhile were super impressive for the first 3 qtrs against the Cats in the first game under lights at Kardinia Park. Not many could’ve seen that coming, all square at the final break with the Suns looking well on top in most areas of the game, it took an epic effort from Geelong to eventually pile on the goals in the final quarter and win by 52. Yet again, the Suns have shown up their much fancied opponents, leading some to believe they might be a smokey to make finals sooner than expected.
Taking away the two wins for Fremantle by 8 and the Bulldogs with a gutsy come from behind 9 point win in the wet Darwin conditions, the average winning margin this round was 63points, dropping to 50 average for the round. This is surely a worry for those running the game, for a competition of 18 teams, 9 games a week, and for 6 of the week’s games to be all over at HT that’s hardly going to keep interest. Letalone the fact in other sports it’s their peak time in the season, like the NRL in it’s most popular period with Origin, and the once every 12yr tour of the British and Irish Lions facing the Wallabies and every Australian SuperRugby franchise. Have mentioned this before, while to many the AFL generally is the superior product, sport is a tough market to keep people’s attention. But there needs to be proper competition and teams need to put up a contest, 10 rounds into the season and already the bottom half of the table, shown below, has zero chance of success in 2013.
Renewed cries for Mark Neeld to be moved on hardly surprising, but now the heat is on the Saints, after their biggest loss of the season sees them anchored down the bottom end too. Scott Watters is under some intense pressure now, but perhaps unfairly as he’s only now blooding new players into the side. While Ross Lyon is praised by many for his success, not many are critical of the way he ran the Saints. Almost zero blooding of new kids into the side has made his record look good, but left the club now a year or more behind. Luckily Mark Harvey had done the hard work in blooding new guys in the squad during his time at Fremantle.
Onto round 11, just the 6 games so a shorter preview this round, beginning with a blockbuster at the G, Essendon and Carlton. 5th v 6th on the table this should be a cracker, the Bombers just the past few weeks have been a bit unpredictable. Brilliant against Richmond, put back in their box by the Swans, but start favorites in this game. Carlton meanwhile did what every side has done and spanked the Giants, a small confidence booster perhaps but their form has been good. The Monday night loss against the Saints a few weeks back exposed many flaws, the Bombers would be wise to go over that tape and copy that. Essendon will need to focus on a strong defense and keeping out the Blue’s small forwards but then conversely Carlton might find it tough to keep check of the key position players of the Bombers. Like most games, the midfield could prove to be the difference, Brownlow form Watson or the form of Walker, Garlett and usual suspects Judd and Murphy. Very tempted to take Carlton here, but it will be tight, the Bombers have been pretty good on the big stage so far this season, plus the debut of a famous name in Joe Daniher. But tipping Carlton by less than 3goals.
Next up its bottom facing equal top, and Geelong should improve their percentage greatly against the Giants. There’s impressive components to the GWS side but overall, they are still a VFL equivalent side, a level below at this grade. Talk of Buddy Franklin heading to the Giants next season is just talk right now, personally can’t see him moving anywhere, but the money thrown around could be tempting. For now though, not much has worked for the Giants and some bookmakers are taking money on them not winning at all in 2013. Hard to think they looked superior to Gold Coast in the NAB Cup and even notched up a win against crosstown rival the Swans. The Cats had a slip up at home with the Suns playing the best we’ve seen of the young side, but Geelong always have an extra gear and put their foot on the accelerator in the last qtr to win big. This won’t be the same sort of challenge for them but it’ll be important to build up percentage before their bye. Geelong by plenty, feel sooner than later we will hear of the coaching plans for GWS in 2014 too.
Now to Adelaide as the Crows host the Swans at Football park, in a match that could have been timed better. One week later and Kurt Tippet would be facing his old side, weeks earlier and Marty Mattner could have played his final game against his old side. His retirement today may have been dismissed by some without any thought but he was an unsung hero in last year’s GF for Sydney, and 222 games at the top level isn’t too bad an achievement for someone with no right foot! The Swans were just too good for the Bombers last round and besides that draw with Fremantle, are flying high right now, rucks are dominating the league number one in tackles and clearances plus yet to unleash Tippet. All looking good for the defending premiers, add in the fact they won last year’s semi-final against Adelaide at home last season, everything points towards a Sydney win. A record of 5-5 is a perfect reflection of Adelaide in 2013, yet to defeat a top 8 side but have been close, average losing margin this year is just 3 goals. One could argue a free kick and a goal line decision in pivotal moments going against the Crows and they’d have 2 more wins. While Sloane and Dangerfield have been stars for Adelaide, they alone can’t stop the all round abilities of the Swans and tipping Sydney to pick up another scalp before their break.
Only the one Saturday night match this week, from Metricon Stadium it’s the Gold Coast hosting the Kangaroos. Ironically the Kangas were once tried to be persuaded into a move to the famous beach strip but decided to stick with their Arden Street headquarters. North finally broke some of the mental shackles and won convincingly over the Saints but still are in the bottom half of the ladder, both these sides 2 wins out of the 8 currently. Whether they’ll stay there time will tell, North for instance with a bit more luck could be high in the top 8. One thing that I have noticed with the Kangas is they tend to play a high scoring shootout style of game, when theyve lost it’s been because of defensive lapses late, and while the Suns don’t pose as many questions just yet it’s still a worrying sign. Rory Thompson for the Suns played well on Hawkins last week and should take on Drew Petrie this round, in what should be an exciting dual. Tipping an upset here at home, if the Suns can stay with North for the first 3 quarters, then the final quarter will obviously decide their fate but think they have a very good chance. So far with Gold Coast they have been able to mach the best teams for 75% of games, if they can keep improving on that thru the season they’ll notch up more wins and games at home like this are winnable. Suns my roughie for the round.
Which of these 2 coaches is under the most pressure?
Sunday’s only game could well be an awful game to watch, as St Kilda host the West Coast Eagles at Etihad. Some of the skill errors shown by both these sides last round were poor, both losing by big margins and both in positions outside the 8. West Coast have been the biggest dissapointment, teasing us when Natnui came back into thinking all was well again, but their home record is poor. A very fortunate after the siren win against North and a 70point thrashing of the Dogs when they were down. Haven’t been able to say this of Richmond over the past decade or so, but they dominated the home side, and the Eagles have some issues. St Kilda’s issues are there for everyone to see too, they concede too many goals and they have just Riewoldt up forward not getting enough support. Like I mentioned earlier, some of the work from Ross Lyon previously is starting to show, a good coach can make the most out of a good list, but a new coach without the experience will struggle when in a development stage. Talking of coaches, Woosha is yet again under pressure in the West thanks to his under-performing side. Last time he copped this sort of criticism the next season he took his team deep into September, and as we’ve seen with Voss and Hird, it’s harder to lose your gig when you’re a former premiership captain. Tough game to pick here, on paper you’d say West Coast without doubt, and under the roof their inability to kick at goal might be nullified, they should win but will need to lift their efforts and when it goes forward, keep it in their 50m arc. West Coast to win, but not pretty!
Finally the last game of the weekend comes Monday for the Queens Birthday long weekend matchup between the Demons and the Magpies. Collingwood will win this by 10goals, no doubting that, the Dee’s best defender Frawley went down last week and the floodgates should open up reasonably early I suspect. Sylvia comea back in and who knows whether he will be on his game or not, if he is the margin may be reduced somewhat. And one man who in my season preview had predicted to make a big influence on this club Chris Dawes has been poor on the field, like a few of the Melbourne players they just shouldn’t be playing AFL (James Sellar a perfect example of someone who struggled in Glenelg reserves yet gets a weekly gig at the Dees!) In saying that, one has to like Dawes’ honesty and class in front of the camera, one of the few shining lights from the club this week when he presented himself well on last night’s AFL Footy Show. Collingwood were expected to win last Friday but with a couple of key outs late on game day things looked like they could struggle, but 49points later they had won comfortably! The return of Travis Cloke this week could mean a double digit bag of sausage rolls for him, also good news for Collingwood is Didak staying in the side for another week. While changes could well be made late as both sides have byes coming up, Collingwood should treat this as a percentage booster.
So this week’s tips are Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast and the Pies. One of the advantages of having 9 games a week has often been if one game is unwatchable you can change the channel and find a better one, the next 3 weeks that option is lost. Hopefully this week’s matches are enough to keep everyone interested!
Below is this week’s multi thanks to Bookmaker, roughly 16/1. Tipped Carlton in a tough tight match so 1-39 seems reasonable there, although Carlton winning would be an upset in itself. Sydney to win more comfortably than the line which was 11points, score an extra 20c if they go on to win by 16 points. And the real rough one, think it will be mighty tight between the Suns and Kangas and as much as I would like to see Gold Coast win, think they will be only sneaking in if they do, likewise for North. Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for the weekend and seeya all in a fortnight.
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Filed under: AFL, Preview
