This picture illustrates what defensive pressure should look like. No….sorry got that wrong, that’s what a Purple Haze looks like!
Fair to say it’s been a shocking week PR wise for the AFL, so much for showcasing the best of our nation’s indigenous people. Ended up discussing more about Adam Goodes than I ever have before, and not once was it about the brilliant match he played. It’s sad how things ended up that way, but enough time and words have been spent talking over the issue so going straight into the footy this week. For the record, last week was one of our better weeks tips wise, starting off with an upset of sorts with Sydney winning emphatically on Friday night. Most had the game close, or if anything a 40+ margin to the Pies; margin was right team was wrong! For the round, tipped 8/9 one of our best for the season so far, only miss was the upset from the Bulldogs overcoming the Saints in the final qtr to be victorious by 9points.
Highlight of the round for me, the epic come from behind victory from my Crows. Could not have made me any happier, it was truly one of the best win’s I’ve ever watched as an Adelaide fan, 5 goals down midway thru the final qtr and winning by the slimmest of margins! Feel for Kangas supporters, your side when on top, particularly first qtrs, they look great. But notably 2 of their big men, Petrie and Goldstein, don’t rotate on and off the bench often, and other players run out of steam at the end. Could this be a fitness issue, or a mental one, as they have had several tight losses this season, with some luck could possibly be equal top of the table with Hawthorn.
(Now I know what you may be thinking. At the bottom of the preview for last week I typed Collingwood as my tip, but in the write up had Sydney. Will claim the Sydney tip, as on Twitter anytime the game was mentioned I was all for the swans, had previewed the swans to win ‘by a very bare margin’ obviously missed the margin. Was merely a slip-up, won’t happen again!)
There’s one thing that I’ve never understood, the Sydney NRL is best rivalry against the Victorian AFL is best. People on twitter that love their league bag the AFL at how poor GWS are going then AFL fans hit back saying look at the crowd at Leichardt last Friday night, which was a relatively poor 7000 odd. A lot of this is like when you go to a marina, and there’s always someone bringing in a bigger and newer boat, probably to compensate something, and there’s always the guy there saying I know boats and mines better than yours. Kind of childish, but one thing that has been brought up many times and for good reason this year, is the odds for AFL. Put simply, there has been very little value in the H2H bets, especially this week when you see 7 of the 9 favorites at less than $1.50, 3 of those less than $1.02! The argument from the NRL people is look at how lopsided their comp is, and you know what, hard to disagree there. The Suns are rising (very punny) but the Giants, Dees, Lions, Bulldogs, Saints and even though they had a great start the Power have slipped off a bit now. Other than Gold Coast can’t see any of those sides making the top 8, Suns at a stretch maybe, and the sad thing is we aren’t even halfway thru the season.
Onto the first game of the round, Friday night Footy coming to you from the Gabba as the Lions host Collingwood. Like I’ve said before about the Lions, roughly a 4-5 goal better side at home, making the Gabba a bit of a troubling prospect for visiting sides. At times last week, it looked like Carlton would blow the game away, but a good 2nd qtr fightback got Brisbane back in the game, and hit the lead several times thru the game. Saying this, poor goalkicking prevented them from winning, but also prevented Carlton smashing them to pieces. With a midfield of Hanley, Maloney, Black and others rotating thru, that is by far the strength for Brisbane but this week they have big losses with Brown, Leunberge and Rockliff all out. That it itself makes Collingwood deserved favorites, regardless of their big loss last week. They have shown to be a great side on the rebound this season, but they’re still sitting 11th so obviously things could be better for the Pies. Will Eddie’s idiocy on radio this week distract the side? Highly doubt it, but if it was to effect anyone it would be Harry OBrien, who went from BOG to very poor last week against Sydney, skipper Maxwell also had a mare. Luckily for them, without Brown the Brisbane forward line is quite inexperienced so it should in theory give them an easier night. Glad to see Didak back for the Pies, very skilled player who unfortunately due to form, injury and off-field issues hasn’t been seen too much of late. Tipping the Pies will be too good tonight, rumor of Cloke not playing though could hurt the Pies, especially with rain expected. Could be tighter if he doesn’t play.
First up on Saturday the Blues host GWS, and this is one of those games where the fave is unbackable. Last round Carlton did just enough to get over the line in Brisbane but there are some small flaws that need to be fixed. Goal kicking is a big one, and luckily they’re up against the Giants who have made a habit of conceding 10goal losses this season. If this was any other side, Kevin Sheedy would be hounded now to resign, but as it’s the newbies that can’t get a crowd, can’t kick goals and can’t get a win Sheeds can do things his own way. Do feel the next coach that comes in may be worse off which is staggering to think considering how far off the pack they are now. Carlton have won 5 of their last 6, this will make it 6 from 7, so long as they don’t relax they’ll win this by plenty.
The Crows host the Dockers for the only game from Adelaide this week, in what should be match of the round. In what was an incredible comeback, Adelaide snatched victory away from the Kangas Sunday and it’s wins like this that a team takes huge confidence from, even though the margin was just 1! Freo well you can’t ignore the fact they dominated Melbourne more than any other side has for the year, which is impressive on their part but now they face a side that’s top 8 and won’t let their forwards waltz in for easy goals. Adelaide’s weakness after Walker went down was always going to be it’s forward line, but surprisingly without a major target to stop, many of the fill in’s have flourished, Kerridge the rising star for round 9. Defense though is the strength of all Ross Lyon sides, whether the Crows can penetrate thru that will be the difference in the game. At full strength, I’d say Freo wins this regardless home or away, but at Football park, having won the last 3 against Freo, leaning towards my Crows here. One player worth watching is the form of Jacobs, subbed off last game to bring on more run thru Porplyzia. A masterstroke from Brenton Sanderson? Doubt it, but Porplyzia for mine, the best player for that sub role at the club. Patrick Dangerfield has been on fire, but Adelaide needs it’s forwards switched on and must convert if they are to win.
Saturday afternoon footy at the SCG sees the high flying Swans host the Bombers who too are full of confidence thanks to a convincing win in the Dreamtime match last round. Another possible match of the round right here! Richmond on the big stage were average whereas Sydney were excellent, so a big challenge for Essendon this week. A good sign for the Dons was the ASADA interviews seemed to be complete, while I won’t say what I think about the issue, it should help the players with less distractions thru the week’s training. This should be a tight match, the last 4 between the sides the largest margin was just 9points! But last year’s matchup was an epic finish, down by almost 8 goals at 3qtr time, the Bombers rallied and got within 4 points before the siren sounded, and Sydney had limped over the line. Take out Ablett, and it’s possible you have the best in the league in Watson leading the way for Essendon and has really taken control like a good captain does, leads the way in so many key stat areas. Back to back brownlow’s not beyond him at this stage. Sydney had their best win of the season, despite the rascism saga it should be remembered how well Goodes played. Will he play after all the stress off the past few days is the question, and if so, will he be at his very best. Not forgotten either is the attacking brand of footy they played, for whatever reason when they had the ball, moreso than Collingwood, they looked damaging. Reid and Hurley both out hurts both sides, perhaps the loss of Reid can be covered better by Sydney. Bombers have the 2nd best defense going around which surprised me, but makes sense as their pressure on the ball handler has been impeccable in their wins. Just leaning towards the Swans in this one, at home plus if Goodes is at his best, Bombers will need to sacrifice one of it’s more attacking players into a sort of following role on Goodes.
Saturday night see’s a historic matchup, with the Cats hosting the Suns. That part isn’t historic, but playing under lights for the first time ever at Kardiana Park will be, add in the return of club great Gary Ablett and the Geelong faithful will be out in numbers. Geelong at their proper home, is the hardest trip in AFL, perhaps all of Australian sport, record of winning 36 of their last 37 to be precise! The Cats fans will open up new stands, new lights, but still the same footy side they have been used to over recent years, back to their commanding best when turning the Power off last round. The game was all over in the first qtr, blitzing away and scoring at will, for the Suns to have a chance, they need to keep things tight to start off the match. Super impressed by Gold Coast last week when they were holding a 3goal lead just around half time against the Hawks, showing the football world they aren’t babies anymore and infact have grown into an exciting side to watch. Although do rate the Cats just ahead of Hawthorn for now, so can’t see Gold Coast getting that close here, Cats by between 5-10goals. Watch for an ultimate matchup of Ablett v Selwood, should be a cracking contest that.
Heading to the top of down under now for the second Saturday match, and the Power face the Bulldogs in Darwin. These games are a Bulldogs home game but do feel the Power treat the Territory as a second home, as even as far back as the old Magpies days in the SANF many of their best recruits came from NT. Mcleod and Buckley just to name a couple! On paper a relatively close game, in Darwin Dogs have the slight advantage 3-1 wins there, and with Port losing their past 4 have fallen right back to earth. Conversely, the Bulldogs picked up just their 2nd win in a year in what was a surprise against the Saints, a late rally and some good performances from senior players was enough to get over the line. Boyd out is a big loss, but the Dogs have won the past 6 between the sides. Difference is this is 2013, Power have promise and while they were blown away by Geelong in the first qtr, they managed to keep the next 3 relatively even. Win here for Port could see them jump back into the top 8, it’s really a must-win game for both sides, but going Port here. Tight and not 100% confident but feel the Power should be too good, more talent and class across the teamsheets.
Sunday’s games begin with a doozy, Hawks and Demons at the MCG. If Hawthorn don’t annihilate Melbourne by triple figures they should be disappointed with themselves. Ifact with all of Hawthorn’s recent success I’m a bit shocked that they have won only the last 9 between the sides and not more, that last Demons win was by 75 points and Neitz was the star, says alot! I’m really unsure what to say about the Demons that hasn’t already been said by the brilliant @DemonBlog, all I know is in the past 2 matches Hawks have been in cruise control and haven’t covered the betting line. Another uninspiring Sunday matchup here, hard to see the Hawks not winning by 10goals plus. Buddy and Shaun Burgoyne starred last week, expect much of the same, perhaps a late resting for someone before the game to prevent injuries. Should Mark Neeld be worried about his future? Ofcourse, but against the Hawks the realistic view is they won’t win, it’s when they play the lesser sides when they have a half chance and they get smashed, that’s the worry for Neeld. Hawks by a cricket score here.
Last game for Sunday sees the Kangaroos and Saints face off under the Etihad roof. Could be an interesting game here, what effect would that final qtr loss against the Crows have on North? And same for the final qtr where the Saints also grasped defeat from the jaws of victory?? Hearing a sneaky rumor Nick Riewoldt won’t play this weekend, and if I’m honest, that’s the game right there. The Saints haven’t been smashed but haven’t been good enough in any of their losses this year, mainly due to a lacklustre defense but also the younger players are probably a season or a bit more away from properly settling in at AFL level. Part of Riewoldt’s good year has been the fact he’s head and shoulders above many at the club, a big loss if he doesn’t pull on the boots. One thing the Kangaroos have been good at is their starts, blow a team away early then sit back. In soccer terms, it’s like when a side goes 1-0 up early then stops attacking, which is a no-no in professional sports. Once ahead, need to stay ahead and go for the kill! Hopefully the Kangas have learned this vital lesson, some improved shooting at goal will help too, and a win should come their way. Ziebell out hurts AFL not just the Kangas, but thems the rules :/
Final game for the round comes from Perth on a Monday night, a rare one for the AFL with West Coast hosting the Tigers. Last time Richmond came here they lost a game they shouldn’t have, but they did play the ground well. Decision making is always the key for Richmond, often at the pivotal moment it goes astray. Fair to say they were outclassed by the Bombers last week too, so they will be keen to bounce back into some sort of winning form. West Coast have now picked up 4 on the trot and looking much improved compared to the start of the season, which I spose was expected. A team with the quality it contains, plus bringing back Natnui in the side adds more than just another dimension to the side, it adds wins! Can’t see any reason to go the Tiges this week, coming off a win maybe could argue they had confidence but they look just a tad shot now against the big sides, West Coast by 4goals.
So tips for this week are: Collingwood, Carlton, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, Port, Hawthorn, North, West Coast. Having a small multi this week, no success last week thanks to the Swans winning by too much!! Feel the +84 is just too big for the Blues to cover, Crows straight H2H win (money has been on Freo so expect that to go up for the Crows) and Port to win 1-39, all up gets you over $7 thanks to Bookmaker. Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus best of luck for your team on the weekend!
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Filed under: AFL, Preview
