Another week, another chapter in the Essendon drugs saga, with the CEO Ian Robson resigning. The cynic in me feels like he wasn’t a true Bomber guy like coach Hird is, so the Essendon Boys club sticks together and the outsiders, like Robson and the Weapon, who was stood down by the club immediately when the story broke, get made to look like scapegoats. If a coach can’t take responsibility for what his team may or may not have taken supplement wise then the club has issues. This week is an incredibly important match for the side, as it’s Indigenous round and they play Richmond in the ‘Dreamtime at the G’ match of the round. It’s meant to highlight the good things about Aboriginals in footy aswell as focus in on their traditional cultures, but sadly we had a reminder of their world in 2013, when Bomber forward Nathan Lovett-Murray was stabbed in the arm. The awareness of the positives that the natives of this great country should be paramount, but the reality of violence in their community is hard to dismiss. All I can say is hopefully Saturday night’s match is a sell out and we can focus on the brilliance of the players.
For what it’s worth, last weeks IDAHO round was as far as I’m concerned a success, even with Harry OBrien’s alleged gay slur. The act itself was denied, because as Harry said, he called Tom Hawkins a ‘Fat Fuck’ not a Faggot. All class from a supposed ambassador for diversity in the AFL! As anyone who reads my blog will know, Homophobia is something I’m no fan of, and the twitter outrage over Harry shows that as a society we are beginning more and more to reject bullies who use slurs against others. This week in Indigenous round, fingers crossed there are no racial vilification stories but if there are, you can bet your bottom dollar that person who makes the racist remark will be cut to shreds.
Onto this week’s on-field action, highlight is obviously the big Dreamtime match Saturday night, but there are again 3 games that should be winning tips even though the game will be unwatchable! The disparity between the best teams and the worst teams is ginormous, simply GWS and Melbourne have become hard to watch, Bulldogs close behind. Meanwhile the Cats and Pies gave us a sensational game last round, only bettered by the game that finished 2mins later in an incredible tie at the SCG. Our tips last round went 6/9, the 2 losses being Collingwood’s tight win (unexpected but not too disappointing there) and the Lions win (if you tipped that, honestly, you don’t know footy! Even one-eyed Brisbane fans didn’t tip them!). Across all the codes I do quick previews for, always count the draw as a loss, harsh on myself perhaps?
First up Friday night we have a brilliant game with Collingwood hosting the Swans at the MCG (hasn’t the G got the best games this week!) Sydney would have been cursing themselves for letting go a decent 3 goal lead go midway thru the last term to just hold on for a draw. While they were ok for majority of the match they probably needed to be further ahead entering the last qtr for them to win, but Freo deserved to win with plenty more shots at goal. Alas, this week both sides have a crack of making the top 4, and the Swans will be desperate to change their fortunes around against the Pies, who have won 11 of the past 12 between the sides. Defensively the Pies were great at holding off the attack from the Cats last week but it’s probably the one place where Sydney has an advantage, even without Tippet in the side just yet. The Pies still have injury woes, and everything says to me I should be tipping the Pies at home, but going for an upset to start the round with Sydney to win, they have the number one midfield for hit outs, tackles and clearances. They play a high pressure game and get the ball first, so their forwards should get use of the ball more often. Key will be keeping Cloke quiet, and despite his classless form with words, OBrien was excellent last round too. Sydney, by a very bare margin!
If tackling is what makes you love our great game, or if you want to know who the most efficient tackler is in the game (shouldn’t surprise given his background) the AFL website has done an excellent info-graphic HERE for you!
Onto the first of the Saturday matches from Skoda stadium where the Giants host the Eagles. Put down the glasses, West Coast by plenty, the Giants have really failed to show much in recent weeks since their loss to the Dees, the questions must be asked of Kevin Sheedy and his coaching staff, where has there been improvement, because for mine, there’s been none. The Eagles though just scraped in by a very fortunate 2pt after the siren win last Friday, an epic encounter perhaps lost it’s gloss a bit at the end. The free-kick that ended up leading to Nic Natnui’s final shot at goal (brilliantly slotted thru under immense pressure must be said) is there everyday of the week, no doubting that. The problem us fans and players hate is the inconsistency of when the free kick is given, and noone likes to see someone go weak at the knees just to score cheap frees. Worsfold was under a bit of scrutiny before last game too so hopefully a big win for them will release the pressure vavle somewhat. Eagles by plenty, doubtful 10,000 people will turn up.
The next day game is from AAMI Stadium where the Power, who were 5-0 but now been shot back to earth, facing the 7-1 Cats. This matchup looks far worse on paper for Port than it actually is, no wins against Geelong since 2007, and we all know how that year finished for Port (largest Grand Final loss in my lifetime!). Ken Hinkley though might have some insider knowledge though, played there and was the assistant coach for Mark Thompson in the Cats 07 and 09 premierships. Both sides have trailed at quarter-time in six of their eight games. On the other hand, both have finished strongly, winning six of their eight second halves, Geelong in particular looked dead and buried at HT but came back to almost snatch the game from the Pies. But the forward line from the Power hasn’t been firing as well as earlier in the season, nor has Hamish Hartlett or Wingard in the past fortnight, and it certainly appears that the bubble has burst, although they played ok late against the Blues. Cats should win here but would dearly love to see Port get close. Might think thats odd coming from a Crows fan but the Power brand of footy when at their best earlier in the year was fantastic to watch. Geelong after a tight loss will be fired up, and the return (maybe?) of Stevie Johnson will help the Cats remarkably, should win here.
The Saturday Arvo game could be an interesting one, as the Saints and Bulldogs face off at Etihad. Hard to think jus a couple of years ago the Saints were in Grand Finals and the Dogs were only a kick away from that, yet now, the men from the West look poor and St Kilda, while not being blown away, haven’t matched the better sides for long enough. Brendan McCartney was finally put under the spotlight this week, deservedly so as his side has gone very backwards, my pre-season prediction of them to finish 17th looking possible right now. One win since round 12 last year is the damning stat that goes beyond all stats for the Bulldogs. Even Melbourne have done better in that time! Slow was the best way to describe their game last weekend, exaggerated moreso by how fact the Sun’s appeared to play. But then the Saint’s were no better, managing just the 6 sausage rolls against the Crows in their 40point defeat. 40points doesn’t sound as much as what other teams lost by, but it was a low-scoring match that the Crows were way too good for. The Saints should get up here, more because the Dogs aren’t as good just now, but would avoid betting on this game as the Saints present no value. While I don’t follow the fantasy player rankings as much as others, incredible to think in the great form he has been in, that Riewoldt according to the AFL’s official rankings is 87th.
Onto Saturday night’s games, the first from the Gabba where the NAB Cup finallists play off in what looks to be wet conditions in Brisbane. If not wet, bloody cold for the Lions hosting the Blues. Amazingly both sides coming off wins, Brisbane the most unexpected upset of the season. Said it before, literally noone I know tipped them, a couple had a bet because the Bomber’s represented no value for the win. But it was a performance right out of the hat, could it be the stimulus to get 2013 rocking along now for Voss? Looking at the recent encounters though, Carlton have been a tough nut to crack, forget the NAB Cup win the last 4 clashes have an average winning margin for Carlton of 10goals! With 2 key defenders suspended from last round, if things go bad for the Lions they will go real bad without any defence. At home, Brisbane are a much better side, could argue it would be a close one, but feel Carlton across the board but particularly in the midfield should be too strong. Watch out for these awesome matchups, Hanley on Murphy, and the 2 old stars Judd on Black.
Now for the match of the round, Dreamtime at the G, between the Tiges and the Bombers. If you thought being questioned by ASADA was off-putting for game preparations, try THIS for a decent distraction. Got to feel for Rance there, crazy story. Onto the game now, and its hard to split the sides now the Bombers have had a slip in form. Otherwise, would be keen on Essendon to deliver the good on the big stage, something the Tigers struggle at. Last week was an incredible loss for the Bombers, only 10points, but when most were expecting a shellacking. Must be said that they looked distracted and not on their game, perhaps the ASADA interviews making an interference or they went out expecting to just win without working for it. Either way, James Hird needs to send a rocket up his men and get them wanting to win. Richmond meanwhile did enough to win against the Dees but were hardly convincing, again maybe they went out just expecting to win? Newman and Maric are big ins for Richmond, Dempsey and Jetta in for the Bombers adds more Aboriginal flavor to the game and no doubt all the indigenous guys involved would be immensely proud to pull on the jumper this Saturday night. Where I think the game will be won in in the mind, Essendon should have the big game experience to win here plus, forgetting last round, have been a much harder side at the ball than the Tigers, strong tackling and decision making in close games are vital. Essendon is the tip here but expect a tight game infront of 80,000+.
Sunday now, and 2 of these games are simple enough to preview, Fremantle should dismantle Melbourne and although they haven’t been as attacking as other sides, this week will be a percentage booster for the men in Purple, especially after their brilliant effort to snatch a draw last round. Only worry here is their goalkicking needs improving, for Melbourne so long as they give and have a crack like last week against Richmond, there’s not much more a fan can ask for. Subiaco, hardest place for opposing teams to travel to, make no mistake it’s a near impossibility for Melbourne to win this.
The least exciting game at the MCG this week, by a very long way, is the Hawks hosting Gold Coast. Positives for the Suns are many,returning to the scene of their impressive demolition job on Melbourne a fortnight ago. But they face the team on top of the table Sunday and, I do believe they can get within 11goals. Which sounds lame, but that’s what the line is for this match! Hawks got lucky this fortnight with GWS followed by Gold Coast, easy 8 points for them, but their main focus will be getting thru injury free, and keeping focus. Like we saw with Essendon last week, eyes off the ball for just a short space in time and the opposition pounces. Hawks by only 6 goals, something to look out for is 2 of the 3 players that average 30 touches a game playing in this fixture, Ablett and Mitchell. What odds the Best on Ground goes to one of these 2? Short I bet!
Final game to preview comes from Etihad and is a proper difficult game to pick, North hosting the Crows. Adelaide should be bringing in some good confidence after big wins against the Giants and Saints but this next 8 game patch against 5 of last year’s finalists will be the crucial point of their season. The margin of the wins has been impressive but not as much as the new look forward line without Walker as the focal point, but the Kangas defense will stop many of the chances the Saints and Giants leaked thru. the 3-5 record doesn’t really show how close North have been, simply they should’ve won 3 of those losses and had their chances round 1 aswell. Does this make them struggle when the heat is on? Perhaps, but the Crows have too, losing from a winnable position against Hawthorn giving up a lead against Port, and not even turning up in round 1! Whoever wins this gets into the top 8, for the loser, makes it very difficult to make a comeback from here. Slightly leaning to the Crows, feel they play better in the controlled Etihad environment against North,(lost fair few games recently in Melb though) while the Kangas forward line is potentially more dangerous than Adelaide’s. Very tough one, and going more with my heart than head, see if North’s bad luck continues!
So, recapping this week’s tips, mainly going with the favorites but hard to go against them. Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Adelaide. Below is my AFL multi for the week, at roughly 20/1 thanks to Sportsbet. This was initially posted on Twitter earlier in the week, odds may have changed slightly. All roughies, if the Swans win it won’t be by many hence the 1-39 margin; Brisbane at home, potential rain means tight game so to get within 16points is achievable; Gold Coast outlined earlier that I feel they are on the improve and shouldn’t be spanked by 11 goals; And the Crows I tipped to win, but saving myself incase its a tight loss. Follow on twitter @mugpuntaus and best of luck for the weekend!
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Filed under: AFL, Preview, Sport
